Stalin's big delimitation meet today, AIADMK, BJP ally PMK to attend

Ahead of Wednesday's all-party meet on delimitation to be hosted by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin in Chennai, all eyes are on the strength of the gathering the DMK supremo would attract on this contentious issue.

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The BJP, terming DMK's fears around delimitation as "imaginary", has said it won't attend. BJP's NDA ally PMK will however go and oppose delimitation on the basis of population.

Anbumani Ramadoss, chief of the PMK, the second largest vote shareholder in the state after the BJP, has said he would resist unfair advantage to the northern states in the delimitation exercise should it be based solely on population.

AIADMK has also confirmed attendance at tomorrow's meeting with some party sources signalling possibilities of a pre-poll alliance with the PMK in the state. 

This could isolate the BJP, which is already struggling electorally in Tamil Nadu and will face greater challenges on account of its support for the three-language formula (which Stalin has opposed) and delimitation.

Electoral planks still fluid, BJP sources said the DMK was hammering the delimitation issue because it was short of other viable strategic options ahead of 2026 Assembly polls.

Concerns among southern states over delimitation have been peaking since the Abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir followed by a delimitation exercise in the erstwhile state despite much opposition.

Though Home Minister Amit Shah has said southern states would not lose a single Lok Sabha seat to delimitation, Karnataka CM and Congress veteran Siddaramaiah termed the Home Minister's remarks as not credible. Telangana CM Revanth Reddy of the Congress has also questioned delimitation prospects.

"If the Union government is genuine about being fair to Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh it should tell whether delimitation will be held on the basis of the latest population (Census) or the current Lok Sabha seats and proportional increase in statewise seats," Siddaramaiah said.

He said if delimitation happened on the basis of the new Census, southern states would lose elective seats. Citing estimation studies, Siddharamaiah said Karnataka's LS seat share would plummet from 28 to 26; Kerala's from 20 to 12; Tamil Nadu's from 39 to 31 and Andhra Pradesh's from 42 to 34.

"On the other hand UP's share will rise from 80 to 91, Madhya Pradesh's from 29 to 33 and Bihar's from 40 to 50," the Karnataka CM said, recommending continuation of the 1971 Census as the benchmark for future delimitation.

The current constitutional position is that there would be no delimitation until the first Census after 2026. This position flows from the 84th amendment of the Constitution, passed when late Atal Behari Vajpayee was leading the NDA government. 

Dilution in LS representation is not the only concern the Opposition has over delimitation. Since the representation of states in the Rajya Sabha is based on their population, the next delimitation exercise would significantly alter the number of Upper House MPs from states that have reached replacement level of fertility, mainly south Indian states. 

Many north Indian states on the contrary would be witnessing a rise in the population until 2026 and will land a larger share of MPs in the Rajya Sabha when the next delimitation takes place. The Lok Sabha chamber in the newly built Parliament House complex can house 888 MPs in anticipation of the pending delimitation exercise. The current LS strength is 543.