Tariffs, tensions cloud prospect of Modi-Trump talks at ASEAN summit

The Indian leadership will decide after Diwali on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s possible visit to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, for the ASEAN and East Asia summits.

Scheduled from October 26, the ASEAN summit is expected to be attended by US President Donald Trump, presenting a potential opportunity for a Modi-Trump bilateral meeting. It could be the only immediate occasion for the two leaders to meet, as Trump is unlikely to travel to Johannesburg for the G20 summit next month, and the Quad leaders’ summit is yet to be finalised.

New Delhi remains cautious before confirming any bilateral engagement between Modi and Trump, who last met in February in Washington DC, less than a month after Trump took office.

Since May, India-US ties have steadily deteriorated, reaching their lowest point in two decades. Modi and Trump have, however, held several phone conversations in recent weeks to discuss ongoing trade negotiations.

“A call on Modi’s trip to Malaysia will be taken after Diwali,” a source said, citing several factors under consideration. Among them is Trump’s unpredictability and his tendency to make unilateral claims on sensitive India-related issues.

Foremost among the irritants are twin US tariffs — 25 per cent on reciprocal trade and another 25 per cent as a punitive measure for India’s purchase of Russian crude oil. Trade negotiators from both sides wrapped up another round of talks in the US on Friday, but tariffs remain a sticking point ahead of any possible Modi-Trump meeting.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said talks were proceeding in a “very cordial environment”, but declined to specify a timeline. “Free trade agreements are never bound by deadlines. There is no agreement until all our interests are addressed,” he added.

New Delhi is also wary of Trump’s repeated, unilateral claims, including that he “brokered a ceasefire” between India and Pakistan during Operation Sindoor in May. Despite India’s public denials, Trump has continued to make the assertion, even as Washington’s growing warmth towards Islamabad is being closely watched in New Delhi.

Trump’s criticism of India’s ties with Russia adds to the strain. Last Wednesday, he claimed that Modi had informed him India had stopped buying Russian crude oil — a statement the Ministry of External Affairs rebutted, saying no such matter was discussed during their phone call.

Modi recently expressed support for Trump’s 20-point peace plan to end the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. While Trump publicly thanked Modi on his social media platform ‘Truth Social’, he also invited Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to address the same event.