Turnout in 16 UP bellwether seats drops amid intense heatwave

Sandeep Dikshit

Lucknow, May 20

Scorching heat ensured that only 55.8 per cent polling was witnessed till 5 pm in 16 bellwether seats of Uttar Pradesh that set the pattern for the state’s two out of the four major regions.

BJP lost only Raebareli in 2019

• This is a crucial phase for the BJP as these seats set the pattern for the two out of the four major regions in Uttar Pradesh
• Retaining 15 out of 16 seats that the BJP won last time will determine if the party realises its ambition of a handsome win this time
• The party, which lost only Raebareli in 2019, is in a tough fight for at least eight of the other 15 seats due dissatisfaction among youth over lack of job avenues and rising inflation

Lucknow saw the lowest polling of 49.88 per cent, which was a good 5 per cent less than that recorded in the 2022 state Assembly elections. However, the sun was no deterrent in Dalit-dominated constituencies of Barabanki (64.86 per cent) and Mohanlalgunj (60.1 per cent).

Amethi and Raebareli, which are witnessing high-profile contests, also recorded low polling percentage of 52.68 and 56.26, respectively. Even if the 6 per cent mark up in the final polling percentage in the earlier phases also gets repeated here, the voter turnout will equal that in the 2022 Assembly elections and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

This is a crucial phase for the BJP. Retaining 15 out of 16 seats that it won last time will determine whether the party realises its ambition of a handsome victory this time as well.

The party, which lost only Raebareli in 2019, is in a tough fight for at least eight of the other 15 seats due to youth dissatisfaction over lack of job avenues and rising inflation.

In the clutch of eight seats from the Awadh region, namely Mohanlalganj, Lucknow, Raebareli, Amethi, Barabanki, Faizabad, Kaiserganj and Gonda, the BJP lost only Raebareli in 2019 where former Congress president Sonia Gandhi had garnered 60 per cent of the votes. It had thus improved upon its performance of 2014 when it won six seats, losing Amethi to Rahul Gandhi and Raebareli to Sonia Gandhi.

Of the Bundelkhand region’s eight seats of Jalaun, Jhansi, Hamirpur, Banda, Fatehpur and Kaushambi, the BJP had registered cent per cent win record in both 2014 and 2019.

The strategic importance of these seats can be judged from the fact that five Union ministers are contesting for the 15 seats that the BJP had won in 2019. Their selection for the Cabinet also reflects the rainbow coalition of castes welded by PM Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, leading to four straight wins (2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2017 and 2022 Assembly poll).

While Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is from the dominant Thakur community, three other Union ministers in the fray, Kaushal Kishore (Mohanlalganj), Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti (Fatehpur) and Bhanu Pratap Verma (Jalaun), are from the depressed classes. Smriti Irani was rewarded with a Cabinet berth for breaking the Gandhi family’s hold on Raebareli and Amethi.

Another “hot” seat is Kaiserganj where sitting MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh was dropped after women wrestlers accused him of sexual harassment and his son Karan Bhushan Singh was the replacement BJP candidate. However, political heirs figure on both sides of the divide. They include Tanuj Punia (son of Cong leader PL Punia) from Barabanki, Shreya Verma (granddaughter of late SP leader Beni Prasad Verma) from Gonda and Pushpendra Saroj (son of SP leader Indrajit Saroj) from Kaushambi.