Why El Nino ‘at least until April’ means 2024 will be warmer than 2023, the warmest year on record

Extreme events like heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts, says WMO; Why El Nino may be cause of worry for the Indian monsoon?

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Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, November 10

The ongoing El Nino event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the ocean, the World Meteorological Organisation has said.

Experts say El Nino impacts on global temperature “typically play out in the year after its development.” In other words, “2024 is expected to be warmer than 2023, the warmest year on record.”

“El Nino impacts on global temperature typically play out in the year after its development, in this case in 2024. But as a result of record high land and sea-surface temperatures since June, 2023 is now on track to be the warmest year on record. Next year may be even warmer. This is clearly and unequivocally due to the contribution of the increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas.

The previous warmest year on record was 2016 due to a “double whammy” of an exceptionally strong El Nino and climate change.

As of mid-October 2023, sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the central-eastern tropical Pacific are consistent with El Nino—the warm phase of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—according to the UN agency covering weather, climate and water resources.

Tracking El Nino 2023-2024

As per the WMO, El Nino developed rapidly during July-August and reached moderate strength by September 2023.

It is likely to peak as a strong event in November- January 2024 and there is a 90% likelihood it will persist throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere winter/southern hemisphere summer.

“Based on historical patterns and current long-range predictions, it is anticipated it will gradually diminish during the forthcoming boreal spring,” states the WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, combining forecasts and expert guidance from around the world.

El Nino, a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically lasts nine to 12 months.

El Nino—extreme events

WMO says extreme events like heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts.

“The most recent forecasts and expert assessment suggest a high likelihood of continued warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific for at least the next four overlapping three-month seasons: November-January, December-February, January-March, and February-April 2024,” it says.

However, a strong El Nino does not necessarily mean strong El Nino impacts locally.

“El Nino is not the only factor that drives global and regional climate patterns, and that the magnitudes of El Nino indicators do not directly correspond to the magnitudes of their effects. No two El Nino events are alike.

The bottom line is ENSO is not the only driver of the Earth’s climate system or monsoon but an important feature nevertheless.

Explaining El Nino-La Nina

El Nino, which literally means boy in Spanish, has been held responsible for spoiling the latter part of India’s June-September rainy season and is one of the main pivots to the Indian monsoon story.

Sea Surface Temperatures, or SSTs as these are called, play an important role in shaping atmospheric circulations and weather systems across the globe. The Indian monsoon, too, is influenced by SSTs, especially those over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean.

Known for its disruptive influence on several worldwide weather patterns, El Nino develops when the SST over the central Pacific region becomes warmer than normal.

‘Boy’ also has companion—La Nina—‘little girl’

La Nina or anti-El Nino is when the SST over the central Pacific region gets cooler than normal. When SST over the central Pacific is normal, it is called a neutral condition.

Basically El Nino and La Nina are prolonged warming or cooling of the Pacific Ocean SSTs compared to their average values and impact/alter climate and weather patterns across more than half the planet.

Over the south Asian region, of which the Indian subcontinent is a part, El Nino during winter results in development of warm conditions. During summer, it leads to dry conditions over the Indian region and northeast Australia.

In the India-specific context, the development of El Nino is known to enhance convection over the central Pacific and affect movement of monsoon winds in the Indian Ocean.

However, El Nino is not the only factor that affects Indian monsoon or causes rain deficit. Scientists, in fact, say that El Nino has no one-to-one relationship with monsoon rains.

However, in around half of the years that had El Nino during summer, India experienced droughts during monsoon.

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