US-Pakistan bonhomie: India’s military calculus on a reset

India's military calculus on Pakistan is undergoing a reset amid renewed US-Pakistan military ties. There’s concern in South Block about Washington DC’s potential to rearm Islamabad with the latest air defence radars and missiles, fighter jets, or a counter to the Russian-made S-400 air-defence system operated by India.

In the past decade or more, fresh US military supplies to Pakistan had tapered off, Islamabad tilted toward Beijing for getting planes, submarines, missiles and guns. Post-Operation Sindoor, US-Pakistan military and strategic ties are getting renewed as Washington ‘rediscovers’ — not for the first time — the ‘usefulness’ of Islamabad.

Since the India-Pakistan skirmish on May 7-10, US-Pakistan military ties have been unusually marked by three visits to the US by Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir. Each time, both sides promised closer ties, including strategic cooperation on minerals, and on exploration of oil and gas in Balochistan.

In June, a Pakistan delegation to the US, led by its Minister for Energy Musadik Malik, urged the US to supply air defence systems and additional fighter jets to bolster its fleet of almost 90-100 F-16s. In July, Pakistan Air Force’s Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu was in the US to discuss technology and military hardware at the Pentagon.

For New Delhi, the growing Washington- Islamabad ties represent a shift that could see as its forces counter more US weapons, planes missiles and air defence systems — having much better technology than China’s — in the next skirmish with Pakistan.

Islamabad wants to avoid repeat of May 10

Operation Sindoor ( May 7-10) exposed Pakistan’s air defence system. In the wee hours of May 10, the Indian Air Force bombed 13 air bases, including radar sites and also Sargodha and Jacobabad, both holding US-supplied F-16 jets. This changed the course of the skirmish.

Pakistan would want to avoid a repeat of seeing IAF planes bombing runways, smoking out plane-hangers and destroying planes mid-air. Its Chinese-origin air defence missiles could not hold back the Indian Brahmos missile, the Israel-origin loitering drones, or the salvos fired from the S-400. With the S-400 capable of engaging at 400 kms away, the Pakistan fighter jet fleet maintained a ‘distance’ from line of fire.

Pakistan’s air defence consists a mix of US and Chinese technology. It has two-decade-old US-supplied AN/TPS-77 and TPS-43 radars for surveillance. The offensive role is played by surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems from China. This includes the HQ-9P and the LY-80 , long-range and medium-range systems, respectively. A Swedish origin Saab surveillance plane that can keep an eye on targets on ground and in air was also downed by the IAF.

In 2005, the US had last okayed an air defence radar for Pakistan. The US Air Force awarded a $89 million contract for six long-range AN/TPS-77 transportable radar systems to Pakistan. The TPS-43 is an even older platform.

Satellite imagery of Op Sindoor released by the IAF showed Pakistan radars, among other places, being hit at Ijwala, Chunian and Sukkur. All these places have a mix of US and Chinese systems.

India’s tight rope walk

The US thrusting itself back in the region is a strategic push for Pakistan, a country that borders Iran, Afghanistan and China. Now, Islamabad needs to stay relevant to its three main backers - the US, China and Saudi Arabia. PostOperation Sindoor, when Field Marshal Munir was being feted at the White House, Pakistan moved to sign a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, a key US ally in West Asia.

Growing US-Pakistan ties have prompted questions on the present status of India-US strategic partnership. For now, India is walking a tightrope — balancing its strategic partnership with the US while preparing for Pakistan, which is anyway backed by China and Turkiye.

If Pakistan grows central to the American strategy in South Asia, the way India addresses challenges in the Indo-Pacific will alter. Notably, the Quad — a joint forum of India, the US, Australia, and Japan — which hopes to curb China’s influence in the region will take a different course.

Strong ties between Washington DC and Islamabad are a cyclical phenomenon. It has been a recurring feature since the Cold War. The last such ‘discovery’ of Pakistan by the US was after the 9/11 bombing in 2001.

The US landed troops in Pakistan and pushed into Afghanistan. It then used Pakistani territory to maintain supply routes to US military encampments in Afghanistan.

India had been reminding the US and the UN that Pakistan was duplicitous in counterterrorism and how most UN-designated terrorists were in Pakistan.