Who will PK dent in Bihar? Parties weigh answers in strategy meets

In Bihar where caste alliances led by Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav have traditionally dominated the political landscape for decades, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party has emerged as a clear X factor ahead of the 2025 Assembly polls.

None of the principal coalitions - the ruling National Democratic Alliance composed of Nitish-led Janata Dal United plus BJP and Lalu-led Rashtriya Janata Dal plus Congress and Left - are yet sure as to whose electoral bases the former poll strategist will dent.

The issue has been a subject of discussions in strategy meetings of the Bihar BJP core group as well as RJD-Congress-Left state election coordination meetings in Delhi and continues to be debated.

Both sides are analysing the potential consequences of Kishor’s rather aggressive entry to the Bihar poll scene.

A broad current consensus among political observers is - Kishor would likely hit the BJP more than any other party in the state. These analysts point to well-defined, near impregnable caste loyalties Nitish Kumar, a Kurmi, and Lalu Prasad, a Yadav, command in Bihar as long-standing regional satraps and feel Kishor, a Brahmin, could chip away parts of BJP’s upper caste and moderate Hindu support base.

For the longest time now, Kishor has been openly advocating that a Muslim alliance with Hindus rooted in the Gandhian, Ambedkarite, socialist and communist ideologies could take on the BJP and its core Hindutva voters.

Kishor has also been arguing that given his poor health, another consecutive chief minister’s term for Nitish Kumar looks improbable.

But the BJP is not worried about the calculations of Kishor, the former election strategist, most famous for his inputs to Narendra Modi-led BJP’s 2014 Lok Sabha win.

A senior minister, closely involved with the saffron party’s Bihar election strategy, said politics was a mission rather than an event and warranted long term and resilient engagement with the constituents, besides mass organisation.

To drive home the point that Kishor’s politics was more of a campaign than a mission, this source cited the inability of even titans like Rajnikanth and Kamal Hasan to make a mark in Tamil Nadu politics despite an existing space for alternatives to Dravidian politics.

Another senior BJP leader pointed to the sure but short splash actor Amitabh Bachchan made closer north in the 1980s. He defeated stalwart HN Bahuguna, a former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, in the 1984 Lok Sabha elections from Allahabad in what remains one of the largest victory margins ever seen in Indian history. But Bachchan quit politics in 1987 and went on to admit he was never meant for it.

Sangh Parivar sources also speak of their own Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirhua, the popular Bhojpuri singer, who lost the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Azamgarh in Uttar Pradesh after winning the seat for the BJP in a bypoll just two summers ago in 2022.

Independent observers, however, feel Kishor’s entry could well upset the apple cart in Bihar’s otherwise predictable politics where caste and community equations outweigh other factors.

Old timers in the JD (U) and the RJD say Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav continue to enjoy the support of respective caste segments - Kurmis and Yadavs with little scope of significant desertions this time around.

They add that Nitish Kumar, despite ill-health, can’t be written off, courtesy his loyal Kurmi voters in the state. This, they say, is also the reason why the BJP, despite being a senior partner in the NDA in terms of seats won in the 2020 polls, continues to go along with Nitish Kumar.

That said, a major factor to watch out for would be the post-ticket allocation scenario in the state.

The NDA and INDIA bloc leaders admit to possibilities of disgruntled leaders from both sides going to Kishor for tickets if denied nominations by established outfits. How that plays out at the hustings remains to be seen.