The rhetoric worsens

THE pieces of the geopolitical power play seem to be moving faster than usual, and I find myself introspecting on their impact on us. A beginning has been made in the Hamas-Israel war, and a ceasefire is in place; there has been an exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. The conflict had drawn in the US, UK, Israel, Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, Qatar, Syria and other countries which I might have missed.

Peace is always welcome, but will it be a lasting one is the larger question. Israel, ably supported by the US, clearly demonstrated its dominance in the conflict. It also showed that the far-right ideology in Israel has zero tolerance for a Palestinian state, and this policy now holds sway. This could be seen in the carpet bombing of Gaza, in the support given to settlers in the West Bank and the iron hand used to smother all opposition. Will this end the demand for Palestinian statehood and the two-state solution…probably not.

At the end of the day, it is a communal conflict between three ancient communities and religions. Jerusalem has been fought over for centuries…it is where Christianity, Islam and Judaism originated, and it is a bit simplistic to assume that it’s all over now. The desire to control the vast crude reserves of the Middle East is also a large motivation for the great powers to remain involved. Much work remains to be done on the demands for disarming Hamas and bringing about a resolution of the Palestinian problem, given that most of Europe and the UK have recently recognised the Palestinian state.

Has our positioning in this conflict led to perhaps a cooling off in relations with the Middle East nations, with whom we have enjoyed bonhomie in the past? The recent defence pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia would indicate this. Furthermore, it is the recent geniality between the US and Pakistan which is of increasing concern to us. The US needs a strategic partner in proximity to Iran, Afghanistan and China…Pakistan borders all three. Not only borders them but is capable of providing intelligence and logistic support.

Pakistan’s desire to play all sides is already having consequences on its northern borders with Afghanistan with increasing border skirmishes and casualties. How they will balance their relationship with China and the US would be the diplomatic equivalent of solving the Riemann Hypothesis.

The question it raises for our security is that will the US and China, in a bid to woo Pakistan, indulge its desire for Kashmir? Would conflict in the region suit the great powers? For decades, we have had an active LoC with varying degrees of struggle ranging from full war to artillery bombardments and limited skirmishes. The last engagement demonstrated ability from both sides to do far greater damage than was possible earlier. The use of modern air power assisted with drones and satellites clearly shows an ascendance and escalation both in range and ability. Did we manage to demonstrate ability which checkmates the enemy?

Ever since the last skirmish, the rhetoric has grown louder and the drumbeats of war are being heard. First of all, the perception of the result of this skirmish has been very different on both sides; secondly, threats and counter-threats are the order of the day — not only politicians but also defence officers have joined the game. The armed forces are no longer silent participants; they are now issuing challenges and threats.

Every day brings a General or Field Marshal upping the ante. We say Operation Sindoor is ongoing, they speak in the same language. Threats of burying each other’s history and geography are a new addition. Then there is the lobbying by both sides in the capitals of the world, more arms, more treaties…we look up to the uncles in Washington, Beijing, Moscow, London, etc. The more we run around trying to lobby and engage, the greater are the chances of getting sucked into a far larger game and being used as a pawn.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is going on; NATO and the US are actively engaged in it. China plays a far quieter yet perhaps a far more significant role, all the time while we are slapped with prohibitive tariffs just for buying Russian Oil; Oil and Gas which NATO countries themselves buy. So how do we position ourselves?

Let us first turn our gaze inwards and see where we are heading. While we lobby and applaud distant great powers, let us look within. We have learned no lessons from our past failures and are bent upon repeating them. The fissures in our border states are increasing by the day. The same lack of development, poverty, criminal neglect of the youth and the unemployed plague almost all states in the country. Today’s aspiring youth see through the shenanigans of the old and corrupt leaders. These fundamental issues are the primary cause of fissures within our nation.

Solving these issues should be the priority if we are to have peace and accord within our land. These are threats to our integrity and sovereignty. Take Bangladesh, which is not our well-wisher today. Its new leaders have openly talked about creating problems in the North-East and how the ‘Chicken's Neck’ could be used to cut off the rest of India. The North-East, especially Manipur and Nagaland, remains extremely turbulent. For the last few years, Manipur has had its fault lines deepening and remains cut off. Ladakh has been demanding statehood for quite some time, and given the issues with China, should not be allowed to get further disturbed.

Punjab is quiet but a series of events which led to massive protests by farmers gave an opportunity to hardline elements. The recent floods and the deportations from the West do not bode well for the future. Nothing good can be expected if we cannot manage floods, leave alone find a way forward for the youth. The gangs in Punjab and the gangsters in the West will merge and strike at our roots if young people are without jobs.

The state is landlocked; it has no open international border for trade…rather, the border is hostile. Negligible international air connectivity leads to further isolation, there is no manufacturing base worth mentioning and we have no infrastructure for the IT sector. What will the youth do, if not become cannon fodder for the gangs?

We can easily play on the differences in communities for there are many…invaders, Mughal, Mongol, Aryan — it’s a long list. These divisions exist in almost all nations. The British have had their fair share with the Scottish, Irish, Welsh, Norman, Saxon, Viking, etc. but, it’s the nation-states which overcome these differences and focus on the fundamentals of nation-building that prosper. The universities and schools of England, Scotland and Ireland have existed and thrived for centuries and it’s their alumni which have delivered the inventions and ideas which propelled them. We must galvanise our higher education and research facilities to enable and empower the youth. They should be the vanguard of our nation, propelling us to greater stability, security and bringing millions out of poverty.

Gurbachan Jagat is former Governor, Manipur and ex-DGP, J&K.