Battle lines drawn in Nagrota; BJP bets on legacy, NC eyes comeback

With bypolls announced for two Assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir, all eyes are on the Nagrota constituency, where the National Conference (NC) is preparing for a determined bid to reclaim the seat from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The seat fell vacant following the death of senior BJP leader and sitting MLA Devender Singh Rana in October last year, just weeks after he won with the highest victory margin in the Union Territory, defeating the NC candidate in the Assembly elections.

Nagrota has a diverse population comprising Hindus—mostly Rajputs—and Muslim Gujjars, among other communities. Rana, who had defected from NC to BJP in 2021, was known for his strong grassroots connections and close ties with community leaders. Interestingly, he had won the seat in the 2014 Assembly elections as an NC candidate.

The Election Commission has announced that bypolls for Budgam (Kashmir) and Nagrota (Jammu) will be held on November 11.

During the last Assembly elections, despite the alliance between NC and Congress, both parties fielded separate candidates from Nagrota, resulting in a split of the traditional anti-BJP vote. This division helped consolidate BJP’s voter base. So far, no announcement has been made about a joint candidate or alliance strategy for the upcoming bypoll.

In the previous election, Rana secured a record 48,113 votes, while NC’s Joginder Singh received 17,641 votes. Congress candidate Balbir Singh managed to garner 5,979 votes. The Nagrota seat has historically swung between NC and BJP since 1996. Political circles suggest that BJP is likely to field Devyani Rana, daughter of the late Devender Singh Rana. She has already started campaigning in the constituency and is actively meeting with community leaders. The BJP believes the goodwill her father enjoyed will transfer to her candidacy.

Meanwhile, National Conference is expected to field a senior leader from the region as it aims to expand its tally. In the last Assembly elections, NC won 42 seats, while BJP secured 29.

Party insiders say NC will focus its campaign on key issues such as the delay in the restoration of statehood to Jammu and Kashmir and the dual power structure—issues they believe resonate with voters in the constituency.