Strategic vacuum staring at J&K, and beyond
Arun Joshi
AS the US-China debate intensifies on how much Pakistan will gain or lose because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Jammu and Kashmir, including Ladakh, will be in the crosshairs of the super-power rivalry.
It has triggered a worrisome situation for the Indian nation in this part of the country. Delhi seems to be clueless about the consequences of Washington-Beijing rivalry in the geopolitics of this region.
Shutting eyes to the competing narratives of superpower can complicate the situation for India, and the battleground will be Jammu and Kashmir through which the CPEC passes. Since Delhi has reinforced its claim on the whole of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir on November 2, the CPEC can complicate matters.
Jammu and Kashmir is the golden piece of geopolitics in South Asia – it is rich in resources, its demography is diverse, and China is having endless hunger for all resources and land. This is what CPEC is all about.
The real problem is that Delhi rejoices at every word spoken from Washington to Colombo against Pakistan, and its glee widens when China-Pakistan are clubbed together in the line of criticism by others. Instead of watching its own concerns and devising strategies to defend its strategic autonomy, its single-minded passion in hearing out critical language of Pakistan has shrouded the strategic thinking and the real concerns. Pakistan is many times small country whose economy is tottering and, in the words of Delhi, represents “epicentre of terrorism” – that has troubled India no end. It can be tackled by Delhi. It should explore the real strategic means to do so.
The Indians are happy that the US Deputy Principal Secretary of State Alice Wells warned Pakistan against falling into the debt trap of China that owns multi-billion dollar CPEC while using the land, resources of Pakistan, and repatriating profits to China, and the Pakistanis were denied the promised jobs. There was corruption and lack of transparency in the whole affair that threatens Pakistan’s economic sovereignty.
She reeled out statistics and media quotes to substantiate her points during her speech at think-tank Wilson Centre last week. Her criticism was part of a high-level diplomacy and the economic contest that the US is engaged with Beijing, as the two have taken extreme position on the US-China trade deal and beyond.
America has its own interests in the region – Afghanistan is symbolic of its failure in finding an exit route, Pakistan is an ally and adversary alternatively depending on the situation.
It was known from the beginning that the Corridor would pose serious military challenges for India as the expanded Karakoram highway passes touching edges of strategically important Siachen Glacier. The work of the CPEC has made the PLA to occupy Gilgiot, Baltistan. The Indian response has been timid. Barring A few statements, it has taken no concrete steps. It had activated some airstrips close to THE LAC in Ladakh in 2009, but thereafter the whole thing was forgotten.
Within J&K, perennial over reliance on military to keep the things under check, too, has not worked. Delhi is still struggling to achieve the acceptance of the idea of India in Kashmir. This is a political and emotional nightmare.
The debate whether the situation is normal or not cannot hide greater intrusion of the political influence of the neighbouring countries. Simply stinging remarks don’t constitute a strategy. The strategic world requires real diagnosis of the problem, not on the optics that often turn out to illusions.
The conventional wisdom demands that no questions should be asked, but that doesn’t mean long-term strategic challenges should be overlooked. America is playing its own game against Pakistan to achieve its goals, otherwise it is also itching to mediate on J&K. With China-Pakistan coming in its line of fire doesn’t mean Delhi can ignore the consequences of the new world order taking shape in the region.
