Jalandhar West bypoll: Will AAP be able to win back its massively reduced vote share?

Aparna Banerji

Jalandhar, July 11

Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s mohalla meetings remained the most attended gatherings of all politicians during the Jalandhar West bypoll. The AAPclearly threw most of its weight in the Jalandhar West constituency in a run-up to the by-election which was held on Wednesday.

The AAP’s yellow posters were strewn on every street, crossings and pillars. However, with the CM shifting base to Jalandhar and the Opposition directing barbs that his chair relies on the outcome of the bypoll, the Aam Aadmi party (AAP) has most to gain or lose from the by-election result.

During the campaign in Jalandhar West, the CM’s family and the AAP’s entire state cadre left no stone unturned to ensure party’s win. All MLAs, ministers and functionaries of the party descended on Jalandhar. What remains to be seen is whether AAP would be able to win back its massively reduced vote share in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections amidst anti-incumbency factor.

The AAP was reduced to third spot in the Jalandhar West constituency which it won in 2022 Assembly polls.

In 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress won Jalandhar West with 44,394 votes, the BJP came in at close second with 42,837 votes and the AAP received mere 15,629 votes.

The Jalandhar West bypoll results would be crucial for the AAP if it aims to re-establish its dwindling hegemony in the state as it won only three seats in the recently concluded General Elections. Of these three seats, just one was in Doaba — Sangrur (Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer), Anandpur Sahib (Malwinder Singh Kang) and Hoshiarpur (Raj Kumar Chabbewal).

In its victory run in the 2022 Assembly polls, the AAP had won 10 Assembly seats in Doaba — four in Jalandhar (Nakodar, Kartarpur, Jalandhar West and Jalandhar Central), five in Hoshiarpur (Dasuya, Urmar, Sham Chaurasi, Hoshiarpur and Garhshankar) and one in Nawanshahr (Balachaur).

Amidst “chair in danger” barbs from the Opposition and the defiant exit by party’s 2022 candidate Sheetal Angural this year, the Jalandhar West bypoll is critical both in terms of the party’s existential crisis in the state and the prestige issue in West segment. The bypoll outcome would impact AAP’s status in Doaba and also cast a shadow on the 2027 elections.

One of the things the CM had been repeating in his campaign meets and addresses was, asking people not to “waste” their vote for other parties as the AAP would run the state government. The CM had expressed his resolve to continue to remain in Doaba for two to three days a week, as promised, after the conclusion of the bypoll.

After the bypoll on Wednesday, the CM took to X to thank voters. He wrote: “Heartfelt thanks to all voters of Jalandhar West. You fulfilled your responsibility by stepping out of your house and casting vote in a peaceful and disciplined manner and proved a responsible citizen, for which I am grateful to you.”