Expect Covid-19 cases to double in Punjab in 2 months: Expert

Nitin Jain

Tribune News Service

Ludhiana, August 26

Covid-19 cases can be expected to double in Punjab in about 64 days, under the assumption that the growth rate remains constant, said Dr Paul Kattuman from the University of Cambridge.

In a forecast on the future of Covid in the state, submitted to the government, a copy of which is with The Tribune, the Reader of Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School said there was high probability that cases were accelerating in Punjab at present.

“There is likelihood of geographic spillover from neighbouring states, especially Himachal Pradesh, where infection is rising,” Dr Kattuman predicted.

Drawing a map of transmission trajectory of the epidemic, the Kerala native based his forecast on daily growth of virus cases and reproduction number (Rt).

With an estimated Rt value 1.05, higher than last week, he opined that the state could record 50 fresh cases daily by August end while the daily growth rate estimated value of 1.1 per cent positive cases was expected to double the new cases in 64 days, the expert said.

Dr Kattuman recommended continuing with the policy of enforcing containment and closure measures when infection increases and easing restrictions when possible.

“These measures are likely to drive state-level reproductive number to oscillate around the threshold of 1 in the coming weeks,” he felt, while predicting that this stage was likely to last till the vaccination coverage grows to a level consistent with herd immunity.

Acting on the expert’s forecast and recommendations, the state government has further ramped up the test, trace, treat, vaccinate and strict enforcement of Covid-appropriate behaviour.

The ongoing testing drive has been extended to OPD/ IPD patients at government and private hospitals, travellers at entry points of airports, railway stations and bus stands, industrial workers and inmates of labour colonies, staff at marriage palaces, restaurants, pubs/ bars, gyms, government offices, de-addiction centres and public transport.

Officialspeak

With the help of stringent measures being taken to keep the Covid situation under control, the reproduction number has dropped to less than 1, and daily growth rate of fresh cases has become negative. We shall continue to monitor the situation and take requisite action in future as well. —Vini Mahajan, Chief Secretary