MC poll analysis: Aam Aadmi Party, not anti-incumbency, was on voters’ mind

The Punjab’s ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) making stellar gain, the main Opposition Congress getting down by half, the Centre’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faring the best, and the state’s oldest Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) facing the worst-ever drubbing in the December 21 civic poll in Ludhiana district have a clear message from voters.

They still want the AAP, notwithstanding the anti-incumbency, rising inflation and other local issues, which await a solution even almost three years after Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has been in office. And this sentiment is doubly underlined by the two-thirds majority logged by the AAP candidates, the highest by winning 10 of the 15 seats in the Machhiwara Municipal Council (MC), seven of the 11 wards in the Maloud Nagar Panchayat, and gaining absolute majority by winning eight of the 15 seats in the Sahnewal MC that went for the elections.

However, the AAP lost the Mullanpur Dakha MC to the Congress by winning only three of the total 13 seats while the main Opposition party registered absolute majority with seven seats and the rest three wards went to the Independents.

In the Ludhiana Municipal Corporation, which is the state’s biggest, largest and the richest civic body, in terms of area, population and budget, the ruling party made stellar gain by winning 41 seats as compared to a single seat that it had won during its debut contest in alliance with a local outfit in 2018. However, this did not serve the purpose as the AAP is still short of seven seats to reach the magic number of 48 in the 95-member MC House.

Meanwhile, one Independent candidate joined AAP on Monday, taking its total count of seats to 42. Now, it’s still short of six seats to reach the count of 48.

When it comes to the Congress, it was reduced to less than a half by retaining only 30 seats against 62 seats that it had won to rule the MC in 2018. The BJP fared the best in the past two decades with 19 seats by contesting the civic poll alone for the first time in over 23 years after snapping ties with the age-old ally SAD, which faced the worst-ever drubbing by getting reduced to mere two seats, even less than three Independents that had won the civic poll in Ludhiana.

It underscores the point that the Congress winning Ludhiana in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll failed to benefit the grand old party in the civic poll despite the fact that none other than Punjab Congress president Amrinder Singh Raja Warring is the sitting MP. It will not be inapt to say Ludhianvis have voted for AAP, more than the Congress. However, some observers seek to dilute this point by stating that it was a civic election with the majority of voters in urban areas having nothing much to do with the national and state issues. The Opposition feels that it was a clever ploy by the AAP to get the MC poll conducted in a “hush-hush” manner after a delay of almost two years and used “money and muscle” power to wrest control over civic bodies in the periphery towns but still failed to gain majority in Ludhiana, the charge vehemently denied by the ruling party. While the Congress and the SAD ranks, who had made much of the anti-incumbency factor and tried to repeat the parliamentary poll mandate, are demoralised, the AAP and even BJP workers and leaders are in high spirits and feel strongly that the outcome in the MC elections will find its echo in the next Punjab Assembly elections due in 2027.

The mandate is not only shocking for the decimated SAD but is also beyond what the state’s regional party, which had contested separately its first-ever civic elections after parting ways with its age-old ally BJP over the contentious farm laws, had expected. “We were expecting to be a strong opposition, but not to be the ruling party,” confided a senior Akali leader.

In the history of the civic polls, it is the biggest defeat for the Independents as well, who managed to win just three of the total 95 seats they had contested. And for the BSP, CPM, and other outfits, it was a complete rout as they failed to even open their account in any of the five civic bodies that had gone to poll in the district.

However, the SAD won the lone seat in Samrala in the bypoll, which was the only saving grace for the Badal’s party.

The AAP emerged as the single largest party by winning 69 of the total 150 seats and wresting control over three civic bodies in the district while the main Opposition Congress was decimated with only 47 seats, including absolute majority in Mullanpur Dakha. While the BJP failed to open its account elsewhere except winning 19 seats in Ludhiana, the SAD managed two seats in Machhiwara and one in Sahnewal besides two in Ludhiana.

However, there were setbacks for the ruling party as well. The wives of its two local MLAs — Gurpreet Bassi Gogi and Ashok Parashar Pappi — faced the drubbing. Even former Congress Minister Bharat Bhushan Ashu’s wife Mamta also lost the elections.

Refusing to take it as the mandate against the opposition parties, the Congress, the BJP and the SAD leaders alleged “misuse of official machinery” and “arm-twisting” by the ruling party to win by “hook or crook”. They also accused the AAP of adopting “unfair means”. The Congress even resorted to a protest against what it alleged as “rigging” in civic poll in Khanna, where repoll was held on Monday.

However, Deputy Commissioner Jitendra Jorwal claimed free, fair and peaceful conduct of the poll.

When it comes to the seat share, the AAP bagged 46 per cent, the Congress 31.33 per cent, BJP 12.66 per cent, SAD 3.33 per cent and the Independents got 6 per cent seats.