72% voting; pollsters give Cong the edge

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New Delhi, May 10

Even as 71.77 per cent of the electors cast their vote in the Karnataka Assembly elections today, an average of the exit polls predicted a hung verdict giving an advantage to the Congress while one pollster gave the ruling BJP a majority. Counting of votes will take place on May 13.

A fractured mandate amid close contests between the BJP and the Congress, as most surveys predicted, could once again put former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda-led JD(S) in the kingmaker’s role as it did in 2018 when the BJP emerged as the single-largest party with 104 seats, nine short of the 113 majority mark in the 224-member House. The JD(S) and Congress allied to form the government, which fell after a year amid mass defections that propelled the BJP to power in 2019.

Of the nine exit polls (see table), four agencies — ABP-C Voter; Republic-P MARQ; TV9 Bharatvarsh and Suvarna-Jan ki Baat — predicted a hung Assembly with a Congress edge while three gave the Congress a majority. News Nation-CGS was the only survey to predict a slender BJP win with 114 seats as against 86 to the Congress and 21 to the JD(S). India Today poll, which got Himachal Pradesh predictions right last year, said the Congress could get 122-140 seats while the BJP could trail at 62-80 and the JD(S) at 20-25. Chanakya gave the Congress 120 seats, BJP 92 and the JD(S) 12. It, however, also put out an error margin of 11 seats.

The estimates suggest the 38-year-old anti-incumbency trend could hold in the state, which last elected an incumbent in 1985. Top BJP leaders, however, exuded confidence of victory.

BJP national general secretary (organisation) BL Santosh, who held a massive sway in ticket allocation and strategy formulation, said, “Like Ramji’s ‘Sena’ won the war of Lanka for Prabhu Shri Ram, the ‘Sena’ of booth committee workers and page ‘pramukhs’ is winning the battle of Karnataka for Modiji in every booth.” BJP’s Karnataka stalwart BS Yediyurappa rejected the exit polls saying, “We are forming a full majority government.” Congress leaders welcomed the estimates, but chose to stay cautious. Karnataka’s recent history shows a propensity for fractured verdicts unlike in most other states where voters gave clear mandates (Gujarat, Himachal, UP, Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur in 2022).

After the 2004 elections, the JD(S) formed the government first with the Congress and then with the BJP as no party had a clear majority.

In 2008, the BJP, backed by independents, formed its first government in the state having won 110 seats. In 2013, the Congress, with 121 seats, formed a majority government after 15 years. In 2018, voters again gave a fractured mandate.

Meanwhile, the voting picked up towards the afternoon today after initial lukewarm response. A turnout of 71.77 per cent was recorded and it was likely to be revised and could cross the 2018 record turnout of 72.13 per cent. The final official figure is likely to be announced by the Election Commission tomorrow, officials said.

Among the districts, Chamarajnagar, having four Assembly seats, recorded the highest turnout of 80.81 per cent, while the lowest polling of 50.02 per cent was recorded in Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) North limits (parts of Bengaluru city), having six urban seats. A total of 5.31 crore electors were eligible to cast their vote in 58,545 polling stations across the state, where 2,615 candidates were in the fray.

All set for change

People have decided to choose a progressive and welfare-oriented government. — Mallikarjun Kharge, Cong chief

Not reliable

Exit polls can’t be 100% correct. There will be some variation that can change the whole scenario. — Basavaraj Bommai, K’taka CM