Bihar elections: A trial by fire for BJP

Vibha Sharma

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Tribune News Service

New Delhi, September 25

While BJP swept the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it has not been doing so well in Assembly elections since 2018. Beginning with Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in 2018, the trend continued in Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi and Jharkhand in 2019. And this despite a spectacular performance in General Elections spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier in the year.

Though the saffron party has managed to topple governments in Karnataka and MP and form one in Haryana in alliance with a party it fought against – the JJP – decrease in vote share in states like Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand in 2019 could be a cause for worry.

The Election Commission (EC) on Friday announced three-phase schedule beginning October 28 for Bihar Assembly elections for which the counting will take place on November 10. Notably, the “surprising” result from neighbouring Jharkhand in 2019 was partly attributed to a substantial dip in BJP’s vote share in urban areas. This may be a cause of concern for the NDA allies in Bihar (BJP, JD-U and LJP) who by the way are yet to resolve seat-sharing and other issues.

The BJP believes it has an upper hand given the state of the Opposition in Bihar but political observers believe “the ground situation in Bihar, like it was in Jharkhand, is far from what it appears”.

“If you think Sushant Singh Rajput (late Bollywood star from Bihar) is an issue, think again. Ram Mandir is also no issue. It is a state where anything related to caste still has the potential to change the scenario as it happened in 2015,” they say.

Also read: Bihar to go to polls in 3 phases from Oct 28 to Nov 7

The bottom-line is votes of backward classes, EBCs, Muslims, etc. and issues will decide the fate of parties in these elections where the contentious agriculture reforms also have the potential to form another cornerstone, even though BJP leaders, who expect great dividends from the agri-reforms, claim “MSP and APMC are not an issue in Bihar”.

All this apart, while upper castes have grievances against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, it seems migrants who returned home amid the Covid lockdown are also not too happy with him.  Besides the massive ant-incumbency faced by Nitish Kumar, floods and damage to farm lands are other issues that are expected to affect the results.

BJP’s focus areas include Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s self-reliance pitch – Atmanirbhar Bihar – and monetary help, rations and MNREGA jobs to migrants after they reached Bihar in the lockdown.

With JD-U’s Nitish Kumar as face, BJP president JP Nadda is learnt to have asked party MPs to work not only for ensuring victory for saffron party candidates but also nominees of all the NDA constituents

Whether status quo in Bihar or winds of change, as the BJP prepares to roll out its high pitch e-blitzkrieg powered by money and resources, the question also remains whether rivals can match it. In those terms the saffron party has a certain edge given its past experience with digital/social media and high-tech campaigns, though according to political observers, the combination of coronavirus pandemic, migrant crisis, job losses, floods and farmers’ issues have the potential to cause “some unexpected results”.