Biparjoy second major cyclone in one month in north Indian Ocean region after Mocha on May 15

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, June 13   

‘Very severe cyclone’ Biparjoy is expected to cross between Mandvi (Gujarat) and Karachi (Pakistan) near Jakhau Port (Gujarat) around evening of June 15 with a maximum sustained wind speed of 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph, the IMD has said.

Tidal waves are likely to strike the low-lying areas of Saurashtra and Kutch coastsKutch, Devbhumi Dwarka, Jamnagar and Morbi districtsduring the landfall, resulting in inundation of low-lying areas.

On Tuesday morning, Biparjoy lay centred about 280 km southwest of Devbhumi Dwarka, 300 km west-southwest of Porbandar, 310 km southwest of Jakhau Port, 330 km southwest of Naliya and 450 km south of Karachi (Pakistan).

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the cyclone began intensifying rapidly from June 6, turning into a ‘very severe cyclonic storm’ on June 7. “On the morning of June 11, it became an ‘extremely severe cyclonic storm’. This morning, Biparjoy weakened a little and turned into a ‘very severe cyclonic storm’ but it still has the damaging potential when it makes landfall on Thursday.”

Tracking Biparjoy

Biparjoy is expected to move nearly northwards till midnight, then move north-northeast wards and cross Saurashtra and Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts between Mandvi and Karachi.

While rains have already started in many parts, on Thursday the intensity would increase. Some extremely heavy falls are expected at isolated places over Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka and Jamnagar. Light to moderate rain can also be expected in adjoining south Rajasthan on June 16, according to the IMD.

Biparjoy, which emerged as a low pressure area on June 5 over southeast Arabian Sea, would have spent 10 days on sea before it made the landfall on June 15. A slow progress and extended stay over the sea gives a cyclone space and time to intensify.

A system/‘low pressure area’ develops into a ‘depression’ and further intensifies into ‘deep depression’, ‘cyclone’, ‘severe cyclone’, ‘very severe cyclone’ and ‘extremely severe cyclone’. After the landfall, it loses steam and follows the same nomenclature process before fizzling out.  It is only after a system graduates to the level of a cyclone that it gets a name.

Biparjoy graduated to being a ‘cyclone’ on the evening of June 6, a ‘severe cyclone’ on June 7 morning and a very severe cyclone by afternoon. On June 11, it was upgraded to the category of an ‘extremely severe cyclone’. Its current status is that of a ‘very severe cyclone’ with a wind speed of 150-160 kmph gusting to 180 kmph. Biparjoy is expected to slow down to 135-145 gusting to 160 kmph on June 14, as per the IMD.

Cyclones in north Indian Ocean region

Biparjoy is the second major cyclone in the north Indian Ocean region in a month after Mocha which struck the coastlines of Bangladesh and Myanmar on May 15. Mocha was categorised as an ‘extremely severe cyclone’ by IMD and ‘super cyclone’ by global weather website Zoom Earth.

Over the past few years, there has been an increase in the activity in the north Indian Ocean region, which the experts link to global warming and abnormally warm sea surface temperatures.

While it is said to be the least active basin, contributing only seven per cent of the world’s tropical cyclones, the North Indian Ocean Region has produced some of the deadliest cyclones in the world considering that they normally strike over very densely populated areas.

The region is divided into two sub-basinsthe Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Experts say the frequency and intensity of cyclones developing over the Arabian Sea has increased in the last two decades.