Gujarat set for a 3-way contest

Vibha Sharma

New Delhi, November 3

With the Aam Aadmi Party emerging as a key challenger to the ruling BJP and the main opposition Congress, Gujarat for the first time will see a full-fledged three-way contest in the two-phase elections on December 1 and 5.

An important state for all players, for the BJP especially retaining the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union minister Amit Shah is a prestige issue.

For the Congress with just two states—Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh—in its kitty, it is a do-or-die situation.

For AAP, which has presented voters with a third option in a state that has been bipolar for decades, it is a chance to register a pan-India presence by applying the successful Delhi and Punjab model of welfarism.

Once a dominant political force in Gujarat, the Congress has lost all elections to the BJP since 1995. Therefore, for the new Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, the elections to Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh are his first major test.

The Congress is expecting support from the traditional voter base—OBCs, Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Muslims. It is also expected to form an alliance with NCP and Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) to better its chances.

Its main poll planks are inflation, unemployment, social harmony and anti-incumbency against the BJP. PM Narendra Modi has also cautioned BJP workers against Congress’s “silent” campaigning in Gujarat.

Despite losing to BJP six times in a row, the grand old party enjoys a certain vote bank.

Whether it can overcome weaknesses like lack of strong leadership, factionalism and infighting to harness that remains to be seen. Several Congress leaders deserted to join the BJP, between 2017 and 2022.

As far as the BJP is concerned, though its seat tally has gone down in subsequent elections since 2002, Gujarat is a relatively comfortable state given the popular support for Modi.

Its biggest poll planks are ‘Hindutva’, continuity in governance and the Modi factor. In the past few weeks, the BJP’s star campaigner has addressed multiple gatherings marked with announcements of development projects and promises of more in different parts of the state.

However, these elections are being held in the backdrop of the Morbi bridge collapse in which 135 people lost their lives.

While some observers believe that sops announced by AAP may dent the urban vote bank of the BJP more than the rural vote bank of the Congress, another point of view is that AAP and AIMIM have more potential to damage the Congress than the BJP.

Evoking public interest with its aggressive campaigning and a list of attractive pre-poll ‘guarantees’, AAP is banking on ‘welfarism’ to woo voters.

Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal has built the party’s campaign around a slew of sops, including free electricity, free education in government schools, unemployment dole and allowances to women.

Applying the successful Punjab formula, AAP has also asked people to give their views on its CM candidate.

Kejriwal said his party would announce on November 4 the name on the basis of feedback by the people of the state.