Seasonal rain expected to pick up in Northwest only around July 10: IMD

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, July 1

A slight respite from “markedly above normal” temperatures prevailing in the plains of the Northwest is expected around July 2-3 with moisture-laden south-westerly winds from the Arabian Sea “reducing intensity and area coverage” of the prevailing heatwave.

However, according to IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, “due to increase in humidity association with these winds the human discomfort level will continue”.

Temperatures in Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, and northern parts of Rajasthan are ruling six to seven degrees above normal.

Currently passing through a “break phase”, the monsoon is expected to revive in the second week around July 10. Though the complete revival can only be expected around July 15.

Normally the seasonal rains cover the entire country by July 8, which is not expected to happen this year, Mohapatra said. The seasonal rains have covered most parts of the country this year, except Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and parts of Rajasthan.

“Every monsoon is unique, we can expect an increase in rainfall in the second half of the second week, around July 10,” the IMD DG said.

Enumerating the reasons behind the suffocating heat in the NW and “break period”, the IMD DG said heat energy from neighbouring Pakistan is being transferred via mid-level westerly winds. Further, the absence of low-pressure areas in Bay of Bengal and an unfavourable Madden Julian Oscillation are the other reasons why the monsoon has not progressed since June 19.”

Though from tomorrow, relatively cooler and moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea are expected to cool down the temperatures in some parts.

“Progress of monsoon has been quite good in most parts of the country, covering them by June 19 except Northwest which has been the most affected,” Mohapatra said, also sounding a cautionary note regarding agriculture operation-sowing, transplantation, irrigation, and power supply in the region. Paddy transplantation in Punjab and Haryana happens mostly in July, when much rains are not expected in the first half. “Agriculture operations, sowing, irrigation facilities, and power requirements need to be monitored and regulated,” he said.

Meanwhile, prevailing neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. But there is an enhanced possibility of the development of negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean from July to September. Since sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on the Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring their evolution, Mohapatra said.