IMD upgrades 2020 monsoon forecast to 102 per cent of LPA

Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, June 1 

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The IMD on Monday upgraded its 2020 monsoon forecast to 102 per cent of the Long Period Average. The IMD said rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2020 season (June to September) is most likely to be normal (96 per cent to 104 per cent).

Quantitatively, the rain for the country as a whole is likely to be 102  per cent of the LPA with a model error of ±4 per cent.

In its first forecast, the weather office predicted 100 per cent rain countrywide with a model error of ± 5 per cent.

Region-wise also there is good news for the Northwest which is expected to receive 107 per cent of LPA. For Central India, the rains are expected to be 103 per cent of LPA, for South Peninsula 102  per cent and the Northeast it will be less than normal, that is 96 per cent all with a model error of ± 8 per cent.

Also read Monsoon arrives in Kerala: IMD

In the main sowing season of July, the rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 103  per cent of its LPA, in August it will be 97 per cent, both with a model error of ± 9 per cent.

Officials said ENSO neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and Neutral IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean. Global models are indicating cool ENSO conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with some possibility of development of weak La Niña conditions in the later part of the monsoon season.

“These are all signs of good monsoon rains,” said Earth Sciences Secretary M Rajeevan

“It will be a good and normal monsoon, more and more conditions are becoming more favourable. It will be uniformly distributed. ENSO Neutral monsoon and weak La Nina conditions will help India to get good rains. The IOD will remain normal, which is again a plus point

“Probability of normal monsoon is 41  per cent. There is only a 5  per cent probability of deficient rains. The probability of above-normal rains is 25 per cent and excess 14  per cent. It shows the distribution is skewed towards above normal.”