Karnataka poll results: Congress’ vocal for local trumps BJP’s national pitch

Aditi Tandon

New Delhi, May 13

As the BJP lost a second successive state, after Himachal Pradesh, in a direct fight with the Congress on Saturday, party sources were abuzz with acknowledgments of things gone wrong in Karnataka.

Anti incumbency, absence of Lingayat stalwart BS Yediyurappa, misgovernance, lack of CM Basavaraj Bommai’s acceptance among cadres, rebels and finally a haphazard campaign that jumped from issue to issue were among factors that emerged once the BJP settled at 64 seats today, posting massive losses over 2018 when it had bagged 104 seats to become the single largest party.

Saffron leaders privately admitted that Yediyurappa’s presence (he was dropped as CM last year) would have safeguarded BJP’s Lingayat base and prevented such a drastic seat reduction.

The Congress today bagged 42 of the state’s 67 Lingayat seats besides the majority of SC, ST and Vokkaliga segments breaching both BJP and JD (S) bastions and managing Muslim consolidation with its “Bajrang Dal ban pledge”.

A major worry for the BJP would be losses of SC and ST seats in Karnataka.

Out of 36 SC segments, the Congress today won 21, gaining nine while the BJP got 12 losing four.

The Congress also won most of the state’s 15 ST seats, in a massive dent to the PM’s tribal push.

It was also evident that the Congress managed to hyper localize the Karnataka campaign, successfully thwarting BJP’s attempts to polarise elections and woo voters with BJP’s double engine appeal and mentions of India’s rising global profile.

While Bommai said the party would “introspect, reorganize, go back to the people and return in 2024 LS polls”, other top saffron leaders rushed to challenge Congress assertions that Karnataka results mean a stepping stone to a general election win.

“Today’s results will have no bearing on the 2024 elections. We won 25 seats in 2019 and we again work to retain these seats and make Narendra Modi the Prime Minister,” four-time ex-Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa said after Congress CM hopeful Siddharamaiah termed the verdict as a precursor to 2024.

While the Congress appeared in no hurry for the swearing in ceremony in Karnataka (its top leaders will pray at Mysuru’s famous Chamundeshwari temple tomorrow), the BJP was mulling an organisational reshuffle to energise cadres in time for LS polls and infuse fresh energy.

A loss in Karnataka is significant as Karnataka is the biggest state (in terms of assembly’s size) the Congress has won comfortably since Modi stormed to power at the Centre in 2014.

The Congress won Chhattisgarh in 2018 and barely won Rajasthan and MP that same year.

With today’s loss, BJP’s southern inroads have suffered a setback. The party would need to return to the drawing board to see why its Hindutva narratives—Hijab row, Tipu Sultan controversy, Bajrangbali pitch, scrapping of Muslim reservation—failed in Karnataka and how to address Congress’ newly discovered “vocal for local election campaign as seen in Karnataka and earlier in Himachal.”

For now, the BJP can take heart from the fact that Karnataka votes differently in state and national elections.

For instance, the BJP won big in Karnataka in the 2014 LS polls even though the Congress bagged a majority in the state in 2013.

Likewise, though the JDS and Congress formed a coalition government in Karnataka in 2018 and allied for 2019 LS polls, BJP won 25 of the state’s 28 LS segments.