Karnataka polls: Most exit polls miss mark, only one gets scale of Congress win right; Shivakumar's prediction very close

Senior Congress leader DK Shivakumar’s prediction that the Congress would win at least 141 seats earlier this week was very close to the actual figure of 135 that his party has won

Karnataka Congress president D.K. Shivakumar during celebrations after the party's win in Karnataka Assembly elections, in Bengaluru, on Saturday, May 13, 2023. PTI

PTI

New Delhi, May 13

Most exit polls missed their mark in predicting an outright win for the Congress in the Karnataka assembly polls though some of them got that aspect right with only India Today-Axis My India forecasting the scale of win correctly.

Interestingly, it was senior Congress leader DK Shivakumar whose prediction that the Congress would win at least 141 seats in an interview to PTI earlier this week was very close to the actual figure of 135 that his party has won.

In the results declared Saturday, the Congress won 135 seats while the BJP ended up with 65. The JD(S), the third player in the contest, won 19 seats in the 224-member assembly, while two seats were won by Independents, two were won by regional parties. Counting was still on in one seat, where the Congress was leading.

In its exit poll released after the voting on May 10, India Today-Axis My India predicted a clear majority for the Congress with 122-140 seats and gave the BJP 62-80 seats. It gave 20-25 seats to the JD(S).

News 24-Today’s Chanakya also forecast a majority for the Congress with 120 seats with a plus-minus margin of error of 11 seats, as against 92 seats for the BJP and 12 for the JD(S). Times Now-ETG exit polls gave 113 seats to the Congress and 85 to the BJP. It predicted 23 seats for JD (S).

The India TV-CNX exit polls gave the Congress 110-120 seats and the BJP 80-90 seats. They predicted 20-24 seats for the JD (S).

There were also several polls that were predicting the possibility of a hung house.

While the ABP News-C Voter exit poll had predicted that the Congress would get 100-112 seats, BJP 83-95, JD(S) 21-29, the Republic TV-P MARQ forecast that the Congress will get 94-108 seats, the BJP 85-100 and JD(S) 24-32.

The TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat exit poll stated that the Congress was likely to get 99-109 seats, the BJP 88-98 and the JD(S) 21-26 while the Zee News-Matrize Agency predicted that the Congress would get 103-118, the BJP 79-94 and the JD(S) 25-33.

Two polls has also indicated to the possibility of the BJP winning a majority.

The News Nation-CGS poll said the BJP would get 114 seats, the Congress 86 and the JD(S) 21. The Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat forecast that the BJP was likely to win 94-117, Congress 91-106 and the JD(S) 14-24.

In the 2018 assembly elections, BJP emerged as the single largest party by winning 104 seats out of total 224, followed by the Congress at 80 and JD(S) at 37. There was one independent member, while BSP and Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janata Party (KPJP) had one legislator each.