Lancet cautions India against 'false optimism'

Aditi Tandon

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, September 26

Leading medical journal ‘The Lancet’, in its latest editorial, cautioned India against “false optimism” over the Covid-19 situation and questioned the mortality data being reported by the government.

The journal said despite a strong response at the outset of the pandemic, as of September 22, India had the world’s fastest growing numbers according to the WHO. “The country has responded well in many regards, especially for such a large and diverse nation. India clamped a national lockdown in March, which was praised by the WHO. Testing numbers increased quickly, with India being among the first to roll out innovations like pooled testing. India has been at the forefront of efforts to develop and manufacture a vaccine, both through domestic vaccine candidates and manufacturers such as the Serum Institute of India preparing production capacity for internationally developed vaccine candidates…but difficulties remain,” said the Lancet.

It noted that the lockdown in India created a parallel crisis as incomes fell dramatically noting, “India’s GDP was already decreasing before Covid-19 but the contraction of almost 25 per cent year on year in the quarter April to June could make India one of the worst-affected countries economically.”

It said rapidly growing cases in India alongside continuing relaxations were creating an atmosphere of “fatalism mingled with false optimism.”

“The epidemic in India is far from over, with a potentially huge burden of mortality and morbidity to come unless public health measures are used and adhered to. Without clear and honest communication of the risks to the population, stemming the epidemic will be impossible,” said the journal, adding that the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) had been singled out by experts for straying from scientific evidence and for appearing “politically motivated and overly optimistic”.

Criticising a letter by the ICMR DG on launching a vaccine by August 15, it said transparency of Indian data on cases and deaths had been questioned in a detailed world report.

“The Indian Government reports a case fatality rate of 1.8 per cent, much lower than that reported by other countries. Hope is important but presenting the current situation in India with a too positive spin not only clouds reality but hampers public health initiatives,” the journal warned, adding that failing to honestly report negative news would create “uncertainty discouraging people from taking preventive action or taking public health messages seriously.”