Madhya Pradesh Assembly polls: Why Gwalior-Chambal is the most watched out region

Vibha Sharma

Tribune Web Desk

Chandigarh, June 29

On Monday BJP’s Rakesh Kumar Gupta, a “loyalist” of Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, did a ‘ghar wapsi’ to Congress with his supporters. Gupta, who was the vice-president of BJP’s Shivpuri district unit, re-joined Congress in the presence of state president Kamal Nath and other senior leaders, apologising for the “big mistake” in 2020, according to reports.  

“I am returning home. Congress had given me name, respect and leadership. For 40 years I worked in Congress, serving the people. My father was a Congress member from the times of Independence struggle to his death. I want to apologise to the Congress family because I made a mistake and there is a blot on my character. I have come here with folded hands, please forgive me,” he was quoted as saying.

The second big name to return home was Baijnath Singh Yadav, who had dumped Congress in 2020 to help Scindia to bring down Kamal Nath government. BJP sympathisers in the region now say that “Congress should have been allowed to continue, then BJP would have had a better chance in the upcoming 2023 Assembly elections”.

What is happening in BJP?

Apart from the natural anti-incumbency factor facing the BJP, which has ruled Madhya Pradesh for almost 18 years, observers say there is factionalism and also unrest in party cadres especially in the Gwalior-Chambal ‘sambhag’.

“Whether those who walked in from Congress with Scindia or traditional saffron workers, no one is certain who will get the BJP ticket in 2023. BJP’s traditional cadres are also saying that they will not ask for votes for former Congress leaders contesting on BJP tickets,” say sources.

Gwalior-Chambal ‘sambhag’

The region played an important party in the 2018 Assembly elections for Congress which won 26 of the 34 seats there, helping it return to the power after 15 years though Scindia-led revolt brought it down just before the Covid-lockdown in 2020, getting BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan another term as the chief minister.

The BJP had won only seven of the 34 seats in the region considered the stronghold of Scindias.

Voters’ survey

However, a recent survey conducted by C-voter for a TV channel shows that the region continues to stand behind Congress. The bottom line is though the region favoured Congress when Scindia was in party, his shift-over to BJP may not have harmed the prospects of the grand old party.

The survey shows that Congress may manage to get 22 to 26 seats in the region in 2023 without Scindia. The BJP is predicted to win seven to 11 seats though in terms of vote share it is expected to be “slightly behind Congress”.

Congress may land 46 per cent vote share, BJP 41 per cent, Mayawati’s BSP 3 per cent and others 10 per cent in the region. BSP is considered a significant player in the region where caste conflicts are common.

The Scindia factor

While the BJP will contest these elections with challenges like anti-incumbency, factionalism and general fatigue, for Scindia, the scion of the erstwhile royal family, the coming days could toss additional issues.

Sources say Scindia shares a “rather uneasy equation with local BJP leaders who are demanding tickets for years of loyalty to the saffron party. There is also confusion among cadres as Scindia’s supporters have not been able to integrate with the saffron fold—something that should worry both Scindia and BJP.” 

According to the survey, overall it is expected to be neck-and-neck between the two main players—the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress—in the upcoming polls to the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly. BJP may get 106-118 seats and Congress 108-120 seats as per the survey.

In 2018, BJP had won 109 seats, falling short of the halfway mark by seven seats while Congress emerged the single-largest party with 114 falling short of the majority by two seats. Though Nath managed to form the government with the support of SP, BSP and Independent MLAs, he was ousted through a coup led by Scindia who defected to BJP with 22 MLAs.

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