Rain during second half of monsoon season is expected to be higher than normal

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, August 2

The rain during the second half of the June-September monsoon season is expected to be on the higher side of normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.

Rain over the country during the second half (August and September) southwest monsoon season “is most likely to be normal (95 per cent to 105 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA)) with a tendency to be in the positive side of the normal,” the IMD forecast for the second half of the season and August stated.

However, in August, rains are expected to be “normal to below normal over parts of northwest and central India”.

The weather office said “monthly rainfall for 2021 August over the country is most likely to be normal (94 per cent to 106 per cent of Long Period Average.

“Spatial distribution suggests that below normal to normal rainfall is likely over many areas of central India and some areas over northwest India. Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of peninsular India and northeast India,” it said.

The latest global model forecasts indicate that the prevailing neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

However, sea surface temperatures over central and east equatorial Pacific Ocean are showing cooling tendency and there is an increased possibility of re-emergence of the La Nina condition at the end of the monsoon season or thereafter.

Prevailing negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.

As the changes in the SST conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to influence the Indian monsoon, the IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these ocean basins, IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said.

Meanwhile, the weather office will issue the forecast for September rainfall towards the end of August or the beginning of September 2021.

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