Temperatures ‘markedly above normal’ in North India; lack of rains add to the woes

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, February 20

On February 20, the day temperatures were recorded “markedly above normal” (5.1°C or more) over “most places” in Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat region; “many places” in Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Uttarakhand, Saurashtra and Kutch; and “few places” over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh according to the IMD.

Likewise, minimum or night temperatures also remained “markedly above normal” (5.1°C or more) at most places over Punjab; at many places over Himachal Pradesh, West Rajasthan; and few places over the rest of the region.

Technically February is part of the regular winter season in North India.

However, for the second year in a row the temperatures have been touching unusual levels in the month with climate change experts only expecting it to get warmer.

Maximum temperatures are expected to be in the range of 36-38°C over many parts of Gujarat during the next 24 hours, says the IMD.

As minimum temperatures remained above normal in Punjab and Haryana, Shimla too saw the warmest February day in 17 years at 23.2 degrees Celsius.

Affect on wheat crop

As temperatures rise, wheat farmers are getting worried. Higher temperatures have the capacity to affect the yield of wheat crop, which need a cooler climate to grow and do well.

While India is expecting to harvest a bumper 112 million tonnes in 2023, shifts in temperatures in February and March have the capacity to affect the quality of the grain.

Every one degree rise in temperature causes damage to the wheat crop and affects its yield, say farm experts.

Currently, wheat stocks are at their lowest-ever across the country—a reason why the upcoming crop and procurement season is crucial for the country in order to lift farm incomes, cool food inflation and replenish stocks. The extension of the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana and global wheat shortages in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war have further put a stress on the stocks.

Last year, the wheat procurement saw a sharp drop due to vagaries of weather—heat waves in the growing states, including Punjab and Haryana, as early as March, which affected the output.

Lack of rains adding to woes

There is a direct link between abnormally high temperatures and lack of rains and snow in the region.

Between January 1 and February 15, the country on the whole was 30 per cent deficient with Central India staring at a whopping 84 per cent shortfall. The all India rainfall departure from long period average (LPA) till week ending on February 15 was minus 48 per cent.

In Northwest it was minus 37 per cent.

With no active Western Disturbance in sight during the week, no significant weather activity is expected over most parts of the country except Northeast and adjoining East India, where light/moderate isolated to scattered rainfall is likely duringsome days of the week, says the IMD.

What is more concerning is the threat of dreaded phenomena of El Nino casting a shadow over the 2023 monsoon season.

El Nino is invariably linked with poor Monsoon performance.

According to the latest forecast by NOAA, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral will occur mostly during the February-April.

By February-April 2023, most models indicate the return of ENSO-neutral, with a probability of 82 per cent. Climate models are predicting potential return to El Nino by May-July.

According to statistics, about 60 per cent of the time there will be a probability of drought in the country during an El Nino year.

Chances of below-normal rain will be 30 per cent, while the prospect of normal rain remains very rare at 10 per cent. According to the experts, if an El Nino state does emerge by summer, Indiais more than likely to see a deficit monsoon. However, in an El Nino year, MJO and IOD can be the saviours.

Rains in any part of the year are crucial to replenish reservoirs and ground water.

Rising temperatures

Global warming backed by greenhouse gas emissions is resulting in intensity and frequency of heat waves increasing across the world and the trend has been continuing since 2010s.

According to Berkeley Earth, the last eight years were the warmest eight years and June 2022 was the warmest June on land since records began in the mid-1800s.

As per the WMO, average temperature globally in 2021 was around 1.11°C above average world temperatures between 1850 and 1900—known as the “pre-industrial average”.

In fact nine states in India, including Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, are among the world’s top 50 regions at risk of damage to the built environment due to climate change hazards, according to a new report published on January 20.

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