With projected rise in India’s population, why is China seemingly irritated?

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, April 21

The UNFPA’s State of the World Population 2023 Report on Wednesday estimated India’s population at 142.86 crore (1.428 billion), nearly 29 lakh more people than China’s 142.57 crore (1.425 billion), by June-end.

In other words, India will soon overtake China—the country with the distinction of highest population as on date—to become the most populous country in theworld.

China should have been seen celebrating the event, or so one would have thought.

The risein the number of citizens means more mouths to feed, generate more employment opportunities and be ready for a bigger socio-economic stress—anxieties that countries can do without.

However, making remarks that can be interpreted as a racist, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said “population is important but, equally, talents are important. Our talent dividend is booming and the impetus for development is strong.”

“When assessing a country's demographic dividend, we need to look at not just its size but also its quality. Size matters, but what matters more is talent resources. Nearly 900 million of the 1.4 billion Chinese are of working age and on average have received 10.9 years of education," he was quoted as saying.

So why is China not exactly over the moon over losing the number one population spot to India?

The fact is UNFPA report point to a clear demographic edge for India over China.

While 26% of India’s projected 142.86 crore people by June-end would be in the age group 10 to 24 years, the corresponding proportion would be 18% for China.

Likewise while 7% of India’s overall people are projected to be 65 years and above, this percentage is estimated to be double--14% in China. As such, its age dependency ratio is rising.

After following the one-child policy for decades,China is now encouraging its citizens to have more children.

What is dependency ratio?

The dependency ratio compares a country’s young and elderly population (those who normally do not work) with the working population.

According to the WHO website, dependency ratio is the “average number of economically dependent population per 100 economically productive population, for a given country, territory, or geographic area, at a specific point in time.”

“In demographic terms, economically dependent population is defined as the sum of the population under 15 years of age plus the population 65 years of age and over, for a given country, territory, or geographic area, at a specific point in time, usually mid-year; economically productive population is defined as the population between 15 and 64 years of age, for the same country, territory, or geographic area, at the same specific point in time”.

Basically, lower the ratio, the lesser number of non-workers a country will have to support.

According to reports China’s dependency ratio has been falling since the 1970s, mainly because of lower birth rates and a resulting decrease of child dependency.

The ratio was said to be lowestbetween 2005 and 2017.

However, China’s working-age population has been declining since 2012.

Its age-dependency ratio has risen from 37.12% in 2010 to 44.14% in 2020, according to reports.

The issue is not expected to resolve any time soon.

According to the data, India’s population is expected to rise to 166.8 crore by 2050 and China's population to fall to 131.7 crore.

China may have changed its policy from one child to three children but Chinese women seem to be resisting the idea. Times have changed and so has the socio-economic situation ofwomen.

India’s dependency ratio is expected to fall for the next 15 years.

Experts say India has much to gain from its new status as the most populous nation provided it makes the right moves in education, job creation and gender equality to boost economic growth.

Huge shifts expected till 2100

Huge shifts are expected in the global population and age structure, according to the report, ‘Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study’ published by The Lancet in July 2020.

While India will maintain its number one spot, China is expected to drop to number three, overtaken by Nigeria.

China's population is forecasted to decline by 48%, according to the report.

“Projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1.09 billion) Nigeria (791 million), China (732 million),USA (336 million) and Pakistan (248 million),” it stated.

A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences.

Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come, the report also noted.

Some other observations

• “By 2100, over 80s will outnumber under 5s around the world by two to one,” it says.
• As fertility falls and life expectancy increases worldwide, the number of children under 5 years old is forecasted to decline by 41% from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100, whilst the number of individuals older than 80 years is projected to increase six fold, from 141 million to 866 million.
• The global TFR was forecasted to be 1.66 in 2100.
• The global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion and decline to 8.79 billion.
• Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2.37 billion individuals older than 65 years and 1.70 billion individuals younger than 20 years.
• By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2•1) and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100.
• 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100.

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