A NATO summit & Trump’s pervasive ‘daddy’ role

Europe had a choice. Conflict or the well-being of its people. It chose conflict. The ease with which Europe surrendered to US President Donald Trump at the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s Hague summit last week will not make them safer.Security was the continent’s collective fantasy in giving in to Trump’s demand that America’s European allies should more than double their defence spending. From two percent of their GDP to five per cent. Or else!Low spending by NATO’s European partners has been a pet peeve of Trump’s since he entered public life. But he could do little about it in his first White House term.From the start of his second tenure, Trump has been threatening to abandon Europe’s security and cast his trans-Atlantic partners into the den of Russian President Vladimir Putin unless they gave in to his financial demands on NATO.To appease Trump and recommit him to Europe’s defence, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte demeaned himself. Only a Dutch Prime Minister, who encouraged glorification of the country’s shameful colonial past, could have been so insensitive. Rutte likened Trump to a “daddy” trying to discipline fighting school children by his interference in the Israel-Iran conflict. Trump typically basked in the flattery. The President rationalised that Rutte said it out of affection. “Daddy, you're my daddy.”Right at the start of the Hague summit, Trump was gifted increased defence spending by Europe. Only Spain held out. But Madrid made amends to Trump in other ways, and the President was in no mood to spoil his enchanting ‘Fathers’ Month’ party, so to speak. NATO member Estonia’s first action after the Hague summit was an offer to host nuclear-capable jets in a provocation against Russia. The UK joined an arms race with its decision to equip NATO with a dozen F-35A jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Five NATO members withdrew from a global landmines treaty.There is much food for thought for India in what happened at the Hague. Later this year, India will host the Quad summit of four leaders — Australia, India, Japan and the US. At the time of writing, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is scheduled to attend a meeting of Quad foreign ministers in Washington to take major decisions on holding the quadrilateral summit.India faces a big dilemma in dealing with Trump in his new term. In his first term, India was the most successful country in handling Trump. Mass displays of affection, flattery, few disagreements, most of all, a complete void in bilateral policies.These were the Narendra Modi government’s diplomatic tactics in those years. If there was very little policy content in relations with the US in that time, there could not have been any quarrels either. That was the rationale.India’s dilemma now is that many countries have successfully copied India’s style. Only on plurilateral matters, these countries are not entirely following the Indian remedy because they have collective policy content in relations with the Trump administration.These have become one-way streets. Trump’s way or the highway. They have accepted Trump’s commands in almost all cases. Last week’s NATO summit is the best example. The United Kingdom’s trade treaty with the US is another. Countries like China, which resist, continue to face the US wrath.Watching the NATO summit closely, it is reasonable to wonder whether the Quad summit in India will take place as planned. Cancellation is a word that is rarely used in diplomacy. The summit may simply be postponed. Japan’s Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, skipped the NATO summit just three days after announcing his plans to attend it.In doing so, Ishiba spared his people the deep hurt of having been present when Trump offered back-handed praise for the US decision during World War II to drop atom bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Trump said that like the attack on Japan, his bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities had stopped the Israel-Iran conflict.Japan offered no reason for the cancellation of Ishiba’s journey to the Hague. Officially inspired leaks in Tokyo suggested it was because of Trump’s aerial assaults on Iran. Japan has been among the biggest buyers of Iranian oil. There ought to be no surprises in New Delhi if Ishiba expresses his inability to attend the Quad summit.Australia, another Quad member, is also angry with the US because the Trump administration is reviewing a commitment by its predecessor to supply nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra.In 2021, Australia damaged its relations with France by cancelling a massive $ 40 billion order to build a submarine fleet for the Australian navy. Instead, Canberra joined Washington and London to create a new security pact called AUKUS, short for Australia-UK-US. Through AUKUS, the Joe Biden administration agreed to supply submarines to Australia. With Trump’s review, Australia may end up with no submarines at all, according to former Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull, architect of the original agreement with France. No one should be surprised if Australia does not attend Quad in New Delhi.Jaishankar’s hands will be full following the Quad foreign ministers meeting in Washington. His challenge is ensuring full attendance of Quad members. One thing seems certain. The Indo-Pacific is not Europe, which folded up like a touch-me-not plant at Trump’s approach at the NATO meet.Along with Japan, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand, all key US allies, skipped the NATO summit. They are collectively known as the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) and Trump was keen to have a joint meeting with the IP4 on the margins of the Hague summit. They did not oblige. None of them turned up.Therefore, in its keenness to have Trump visit Delhi, occasioned by the Quad, if the Modi government misses the undercurrents in Australia and Japan against giving in completely to the US — like NATO — it will be making a big mistake. More than ever, now is the time to reiterate and uphold India’s strategic autonomy which is under severe threat.KP Nayar is a strategic analyst.

A NATO summit & Trump’s pervasive ‘daddy’ role

KP Nayar

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