Tariffs, oil & BRICS: Why Trump is turning heat on India

AFTER saying for months that a trade deal with India was around the corner, US President Donald Trump imposed a 25 per cent tariff on its Indo-Pacific partner, and then doubled it in less than a week. The reason, he said, was that India was buying Russian oil, even though he left out China, which buys more Russian oil than us.What is his motive in focussing on India is not clear. There are several possibilities. First, that he is seeking the best trade deal for the US as per his own reckoning, though he now says that there will be no negotiations till the Russia issue is resolved. Second, he is targeting India with a view to achieving some geopolitical ends, primarily detaching India from its close friendship with Russia and/or seeking to destroy the BRICS grouping, which he sees as a threat to the US.This would explain the sudden shift in the US policy, which has shown a 'Pakistan-leaning' neutrality in the recent India-Pakistan conflict. Sensing opportunity, Islamabad has played up to Trump's vanity, investing in his family crypto business and nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize.By itself, the tariff issue need not be too worrisome and nor should it necessarily undermine US-India strategic ties, even with the massive 50 per cent tariff imposed on India. It could be a negotiating tactic. Back in the 1980s, a similar hardball played with Japan did not affect the US-Japan strategic ties.But if the target is India's ties with Russia and BRICS, New Delhi needs to focus its mind. It should be clear by now that America First is not an isolationist slogan. It is aimed at reversing the decline of American global hegemony. It is against the notion of multi-polarity and this is evident from its approach to the nations that are its prime proponents — India, Brazil, South Africa, and the European Union.Note that we have not included China in this list. Beijing and Washington have their own choreography, as is evident from the fact that Trump did not act against China in his secondary tariffs announcement on Russian oil. Trump had wanted Xi to attend his inaugural and the two countries have been intensely negotiating a trade deal for the past six months. Recently, the US blocked the travel of Taiwan's president through the US and Trump's eagerness to meet Xi has been quite apparent. As part of its easing off, Trump withdrew restrictions on the sale of Nvidia's H20 AI chip as well as commercial aircraft parts to China.Trump would also like a deal with Russia. Indeed, this was the first one he sought during his efforts to bring about a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. His rough treatment of Ukraine President Zelenskyy and the termination of aid to Ukraine were part of his tactics to bring around Putin. But this has not worked because the Russians, not unreasonably, think they are winning and do not need Trump's blessings.International politics in recent times has involved broad coalitions of powers that maintained a balance of sorts in the system. Thus, the rise of China was offset by the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy, which India joined, given its difficulties with China. In the west, there was the NATO alliance, which has sought to check Russia.In this global system, we also witnessed the rise of powers like India, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa and the effort to establish a multi-polar world order, focussing on issues of development, trade, climate change and healthcare.But what Trump seems to be signalling is a desire to shape a hierarchical system, with the US at its head. Instead of balancing coalitions, the present system would be replaced by spheres of influence involving China and Russia where the US is geographically detached from Eurasia by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Trump's efforts to control the Panama Canal and buy Greenland indicate that he sees North and South America in the US sphere of interest, while Europe could be pitted against Russia and India against China.As with other things connected to Trump, nothing is certain, until it is certain. He is quite liable to changing his mind and veer off in another direction. But for the present, it would seem that New Delhi does not have a particularly significant place in his plans. Only this can explain the sudden swing towards Pakistan and an emerging possible shift towards China.Given the erratic nature of Trump's policy-making, India need not take anything for granted. It needs to go forward in its trade negotiations with the US, even while laying out its red lines, as the Prime Minister did in the case of farm and dairy products. As for the Russian oil, India can steadily reduce its intake without offending Moscow. After all, India started buying Russian oil only in 2022-23 after the Russia-Ukraine conflict began.As for the Indo-Pacific, there is no reason why the current developments should affect the functioning of Quad, though it is hard to see Trump attending the summit in New Delhi later this year. India has taken its own steps — reaching out to the Philippines and conducting naval drills with the Philippine Navy — to indicate its continuing interest in the military containment of China.India has not handled Trump-II well. It could have simply accepted that Trump helped end the India-Pakistan war, even while insisting that the timing of the ceasefire was of its choosing. Somehow, the US seems to have found favour in our two key adversaries — Pakistan and China — and that does not speak too well of our foreign policy.Manoj Joshi is Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation.

Tariffs, oil & BRICS: Why Trump is turning heat on India

Manoj Joshi

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