Trump is upset Modi is standing up to him

US PRESIDENT Donald Trump’s application of 50 per cent tariffs against India seems to be a manifestation of some sort of deeper rage. It's something for psychologists to study — the corrosive language he is using, not just the application of tariffs. It's a kind of vengeful, punitive attitude. When he talks about ‘India being a dead economy,’ you have to really stretch your imagination to use language like that.As for ‘Howdy, Modi’ in Texas in 2019, that’s all in the past. See how downright patronising he was to the European leaders in the Washington DC summit last week. It’s like a bully, who can be nice to you, but if you start standing up and if you say, look, I'm not going to bend before you, the attitude changes dramatically.The perception is that President Trump has been looking for countries and leaders to capitulate and genuflect before him, to revalidate to his audience and himself that he is the supreme power in the world. Now, there are very few countries that have been able to stand up to him. Russia is one, China is the other. India and Brazil make up the small list.Everyone else has struck highly one-sided deals, which give the sense of a tribute being paid to a monarch. Prime Minister Modi has refused to do that. India’s position has been principled, restrained and flexible. Moreover, we remain open to negotiations.Some of Trump’s rage comes from what he perceives was his role in bringing about the end to the India-Pakistan conflict, for which he feels we are not giving him credit.From my historical experiences, of having dealt with India-US relations in the context of Pakistan, we don't usually allow others to come in and determine the course of our relationship with Islamabad. Now, it is possible that Trump got feedback from Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on what turned out to be the last day of the India-Pakistan conflict. What they told him about their conversations may have shaped his thinking, but that may be very different from the reality.I don't think that India’s high tariff barriers is the real issue with the US, nor is India’s purchase of Russian oil. Both Turkey and China have high oil imports from Russia and the first is a NATO member. In India’s case, it is a sort of a stick against us, to show anger, irritation.Look at Trump’s welcome of President Putin in Alaska. Here's a US President who, even before a deal is struck, even before he knows what Putin has to offer, has a red carpet out for him — all conveying a level of respect and admiration. There is a willing suspension of disbelief on what he can get out of President Putin. It clearly shows Trump is not driven by values, but by power. He only respects power.He only respects when the other side has leverage. You see that with China. The moment China exercised leverage on trade and critical minerals, there was a complete change of tone.We don’t have the same kind of economic leverage that China has, to affect American strategic interests. China has 35% of global manufacturing capacity or value addition. The next 10 countries together account for 37%. With Russia, he sees Putin as an embodiment of military power who can affect the course of the war with Ukraine.Certainly, the geopolitical space that existed in the past — say 15-20 years ago — is shrinking. That has forced some choices on India with costs. Trump’s actions accelerates shifts that have consequences for us.First, there is the impression that force can be used for territorial expansion or interest. This collapse of the notion of territorial integrity and sovereignty can be dangerous.Second, if you have a US-China detente and some sort of a modus vivendi or agreement with Russia — what you are seeing, perhaps in Trump's mind, deep down, is the notion of the Big Three.In his mind, these three big powers can find a way to work together and shape the world. All this doesn't mean that it is all going to happen, but the unfolding scenario is for policymakers in India to analyse the possibilities arising from it.As for opening up India’s agriculture sector, they have been there for a long time. I recall spending nights on issues like agriculture, poultry and dairy. The offer we have made so far to the US, the openness we have shown is unprecedented.Trump could have pocketed this and said in typical President Trump language, I have opened the Indian market like no previous president has. I've got the tariff king to really come down.But his rage (against India) is driven principally by the fact that he feels that a country like India is standing up to him, although it doesn't have the same kind of power as Russia.Having said this, I think that our approach is not to be confrontational. It is not to retreat behind our doors. So we have remained open to negotiations. We have made sure that we state our position firmly and clearly. We have drawn our red lines on sensitive sectors and our sovereign choices.We are prepared to remain open and ready to negotiate. The US is an important relationship. It is also consequential for our national transformation. There is no reason to go down a downward spiral of confrontation. We were at a similar fork in the road in 1998, when India conducted the nuclear tests, although that was a different time. But there are lessons we can draw from there. At that time too, we redefined the terms and the framework of the India-US relationship.At that time, too, the fork in the road — one way was hostility, the other was engagement. We took the path of engagement.I don’t think that to appease President Trump, we should break off relations with Russia or anyone else. The geopolitical consequences for India will be very severe. Not just in our own country, but also in our continental and maritime neighbourhood.(Excerpts from an interview with The Tribune, on its YouTube channel)Jawed Ashraf is former Ambassador to France.

Trump is upset Modi is standing up to him

Jawed Ashraf

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