Lack of cohesion, clarity over AAP tie-up ‘likely to hit’ Congress hard

Rajmeet Singh

Chandigarh, December 26

The lack of cohesion among Punjab Congress leaders and no clarity over tie-up with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is a double whammy for the grand old party while preparing for the forthcoming Lok Sabha poll. It is definitely not going to be a cake walk for the grand old party to retain its seats in the 2024 General Election.

Congress had won eight Lok Sabha seats in Punjab in 2019, whereas AAP won only a single seat. However, the political equations in the state changed with the AAP scoring a landslide victory in the 2022 Assembly poll and former Congress CM Capt Amarinder Singh joining the BJP. Now, the Congress is reduced to just six seats in the state.

In the backdrop of the possibility of a tie-up between the BJP and SAD and state Congress leaders openly opposed to the alliance with AAP, the state could witness a three way contest. On one hand, the BJP-SAD alliance will eat into the urban Hindu vote bank and on the other hand AAP will eat into the traditional vote share of the Congress, political analysts feel.

“If the BJP and SAD alliance does not happen, then AAP will be the biggest gainer. In face of Congress being a divided house and no clarity on the tie up, it is the Congress that would take the maximum hit,” pointed out a former Punjab Cabinet minister.

All six seats with the Congress, Amritsar (GS Aujla), Anandpur Sahib (Manish Tewari), Faridkot (Mohammad Sadiq), Fatehgarh Sahib ( Dr Amar Singh), Khadoor Sahib (JS Gill) and Ludhiana (Ravneet Singh Bittu will face tough competition in their constituencies.

An internal assessment carried out by the state unit reveals that it is going to be tough for most of the six incumbents to repeat their wins. “The party may have to swap the seats or bring new faces to retain or improve its tally. For this reason only some of the present MPs are favouring a tie-up with AAP,” pointed out a senior party leader.

Though the national narrative is expected to play a crucial role in the General Election, state politics will also be affected by pending issues like MSP, Panthic issues and Indo-Candian conflict affecting Punjabi students migrating to Canada.

Prof Pramod Kumar, Chairperson, Institute for Development and Communication, said, “The rule of the high command culture prevailing in the Congress does not allow ample space for regional leaders to show their potential. The Congress is better as the main opposition party and any alliance with AAP will do more damage for the Congress.”

Factors at play

• If the BJP join hands with the SAD, the former will eat into the urban Hindu vote bank. On the other hand, AAP will eat into the traditional vote share of the Congress
• If the BJP and SAD do not enter an alliance, the AAP will be the biggest gainer
• With the Congress being a ‘divided house’ and no clarity on the tie-up with AAP, the party is likely to take the maximum hit
• While the BJP will ride on national narrative, the state politics will be affected by issues of farming (legislation on MSP), Panthic politics and diplomatic standoff affecting Punjabi students migrating to Canada