2024-25 wildfires: Global analysis finds 15 million people in India affected, UP impacted most

Around 15 million people in India were affected due to wildfires in 2024-25, with Uttar Pradesh being the most impacted region, a global study has estimated.

Uttar Pradesh was also found to have experienced its most severe wildfire season on record, which researchers said was driven by crop burning, heatwaves and dry fuel accumulation.

Regional fires contributed to severe haze episodes in New Delhi in November 2024, with PM2.5 levels reaching 13 times the daily standard set by the World Health Organization (WHO) — more than 200 micrograms per cubic metre, findings published as the yearly 'State of Wildfires' report in the journal Earth System Science Data show.

India is among the worst affected countries, with 15 million in the Democratic Republic of Congo and five million each in Nigeria, China, Mozambique and South Sudan, are estimated to have been impacted.

The researchers, led by those at the University of East Anglia, UK Met Office, among other institutes, warn that severe heatwaves and droughts are making extreme wildfires more frequent and intense worldwide, resulting in an increased threat to people's lives — through fire and polluting smoke —property, economies, and the environment.

A total of 3.7 million square kilometres — an area larger than India — was burned by wildfires globally in 2024-25, with emissions released thereof exceeding eight billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.

According to the researchers, this is estimated to be about 10 per cent higher than the average since 2003.

The emissions were driven by unusually large and intense forest fires in South America and Canada, which, they noted, became extreme due to human-induced climate warming, they said.

"Our annual reports are building unequivocal evidence of how climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme wildfires," UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology land surface modeller Douglas Kelley, one of the lead authors of the report said. "Without human-driven warming, many of these wildfires, in Pantanal (South America) and Southern California, for example, would not have been on an extreme scale," Kelley added.

Observations of burned area for the period March 2002 to February 2025 from the US' NASA, along with carbon emissions released from wildfires during March 2024-February 2025 (defined as 'fire season' in the study), provided by the European climate agency Copernicus were analysed, among other datasets.

"During the 2024–2025 fire season, we estimate approximately 100 million people to have been exposed to wildfires worldwide. Exposure was most pronounced across South and Southeast Asia, as well as Central and East Africa," the authors wrote.

Hundred million people and $215 billion worth of homes and infrastructure were in proximity and therefore, exposed to wildfires globally, the analysis found.

"At the country level, India and the Democratic Republic of the Congo show the highest numbers, with around 15 million people affected in each. Nigeria, China, Mozambique, and South Sudan also were also exposed substantially, each with more than five million people affected," it said.

Within India, Uttar Pradesh was estimated to have the highest population exposure, with over 4.6 million people affected. Punjab also had a significant number, with over 3.5 million estimated to be exposed.

Globally, middle and high-income countries saw the highest infrastructure exposed to wildfires, with India ranking first at $44 billion, followed by the US ($26 billion), China ($17 billion), Venezuela, South Africa and Brazil, the researchers said.

India, Brazil and China ranked high on both population and physical asset exposure, they said.