Heatwave-linked surge in power demand may deepen India’s fossil-fuel dependence: Report

Record-breaking heatwaves are directly fuelling a surge in electricity demand, thus increasing the country’s dependence on fossil fuel, a new study released on Thursday has warned, calling for urgent investment in renewable energy storage and smart grid infrastructure to break India’s “heat-power trap”.

The report, ‘Breaking the Cycle’—jointly published by Climate Tends and Climate Compatible Futures—shows that the number of heatwave days with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius spiked sharply over the last decade, with 14 states recording a 15 per cent increase in summer heat intensity between 2015 and 2024.

India’s annual average temperature in 2024 was 0.65 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 baseline.

As temperatures climbed, electricity demand rose in tandem—with heatwave conditions alone adding nearly nine per cent to India’s peak power demand during April-June 2024, leading to 327 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, the report said.

Consumption of fossil-based power during summer months over the past decade contributed 2.5 gigatonnes of CO2, it added.

“Rising temperatures have consistently increased electricity demand predominantly for cooling needs, resulting in further dependence on fossil fuels,” said Dr Manish Ram, CEO of Climate Compatible Futures.

“Meeting the summer demand surge with fossil fuels has worsened emissions and air pollution. It’s important to break this cycle to avoid disproportionately impacting vulnerable communities,” he said.

Despite rapid growth in renewable energy from 84 GW (gigawatt) in 2015 to 209 GW in 2024, coal remains India’s dominant power source. Fossil-fuel capacity increased from 195 GW to 243 GW in the same period.

While renewable energy generation increased 121 per cent over the decade, fossil-based power output grew by 50 per cent.

The report highlighted that regions already facing harsh summers are also encountering the sharpest stress on the power grid.

Central and eastern states, including Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh saw an average of 50 heatwave days annually over 2014-2024.

Northern states such as Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana experienced the steepest rise in summer temperature.

Heat is also intensifying in regions previously considered moderate. Uttarakhand recorded a jump from zero heatwave days in 2023 to 25 in 2024, with its summer temperature rising 11.2 per cent. Ladakh saw a 9.1 per cent rise.

The study noted that the heat-power feedback loop hits rural and low-income populations hardest, exposing them to both heat stress and energy supply disruptions.

Existing socioeconomic disparities are compounded by inadequate cooling, patchy access to electricity and poor infrastructure resilience, it said.

Dr Ram said states facing heat-driven spikes “must urgently expand renewable energy and storage capacities to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels”, adding that, even renewable energy-heavy states are now seeing the limits of solar and wind power integration without adequate storage and flexible grid systems.

Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, said heatwaves and power shortages “can no longer be treated as separate crises”.

“The only durable way out is to urgently upgrade our grid, invest in storage and enable flexible, climate-resilient electricity systems,” she said. “Without these investments, every summer will lock us deeper into fossil dependence, worsening public health impacts. Breaking this cycle is an equity imperative.”

The analysis of Heat Action Plans (HAPs) across India revealed critical gaps: only four states, three cities and one district currently incorporate renewable energy-based backup systems such as solar power or battery storage into their heat preparedness frameworks, the report stated.

It called for integrating energy planning with climate adaptation, including renewable backup systems, demand forecasting and urban cooling strategies to strengthen resilience during extreme heat events.

Recent studies by Ember and CREA (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air) cited in the report show that India could avoid new coal expansion by meeting its 2032 capacity targets, and peak coal power generation would decline if India adds 50 GW of renewable capacity annually until 2035.