Dalai Lama’s successor: A spiritual legacy at the heart of global politics

As the revered Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday on July 6, the question on everyone's lips isn’t just spiritual — it’s strategic. The succession of Tibetan Buddhism’s highest spiritual leader carries deep implications not only for his millions of followers, but also for global powers like India, China, and the United States.

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A Sacred birth: How the 14th Dalai Lama was found

Tibetan tradition holds that a Dalai Lama is the reincarnation of his predecessor — his soul returning in a new form. The current spiritual leader, born Lhamo Dhondup in 1935, was identified as the 14th Dalai Lama at the age of two. A search party, guided by visions and traditional signs, was convinced when the toddler recognized the personal items of the 13th Dalai Lama, declaring, “It’s mine, it’s mine.” By 1940, young Lhamo was enthroned at the Potala Palace in Lhasa, Tibet’s spiritual heart.

What comes next?

Since his exile to McLeodganj in Himachal Pradesh after the 1959 Tibetan uprising, the Dalai Lama has remained a global symbol of peace and resistance. In his newly released book, Voice for the Voiceless (March 2025), he finally offered clarity: his successor will be born outside China.

He also confirmed that the Gaden Phodrang Trust — a body he established in 2011 — will have sole authority to identify his reincarnation. “There will be a framework for the continuation of the institution of the Dalai Lamas,” he declared during a recent address in Dharamsala.

While speculation has swirled around whether the Dalai Lama would train a successor in his lifetime, officials from the Tibetan parliament-in-exile have clarified: the tradition of reincarnation will prevail.

China’s claim and Tibet’s resistance

The biggest source of conflict is Beijing’s assertion that only its government can approve the next Dalai Lama. Citing a Qing dynasty ritual involving a golden urn, Chinese officials insist that reincarnations must occur within China’s borders, and that national laws dictate the selection process.

But the Dalai Lama has firmly rejected this narrative. In his book, he urged Tibetans to reject any politically motivated candidate, particularly one chosen by the Chinese government. He’s long accused China’s Communist leaders of lacking the spiritual legitimacy to interfere in a religious process they do not believe in.

In 1995, the deep mistrust intensified when China appointed Gyaltsen Norbu as the 11th Panchen Lama. The Dalai Lama had named his own candidate — a six-year-old boy — who was taken away by Chinese authorities and has not been seen since.

India, the US and the geopolitical chessboard

India, home to the Dalai Lama and over 1,00,000 Tibetan Buddhists, has quietly leveraged his presence as soft power in its relationship with China. His spiritual stature gives New Delhi a subtle yet potent diplomatic tool.

The United States has taken a more outspoken approach. In 2024, President Joe Biden signed a law rejecting Chinese influence over the Dalai Lama’s succession and reaffirming support for Tibetan autonomy. American lawmakers continue to warn Beijing against any interference in what they see as a deeply personal, spiritual process.

As the world watches the twilight years of the 14th Dalai Lama, the question of who comes next is no longer just a matter of faith — it’s a geopolitical fault line.