Discontented Germany votes in election with economy, migration, far-right strength in focus

German voters are choosing a new government in an election on Sunday. The election is dominated by concerns about the years-long stagnation of Europe’s biggest economy, pressure to curb migration, and growing uncertainty over the future of Ukraine and Europe’s alliance with the United States.

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The centre-right opposition is favoured to win, while polls indicate the strongest result for a far-right party since World War II.

Germany is the most populous country in the 27-nation European Union and a leading member of NATO. It has been Ukraine’s second-biggest weapons supplier, after the US.

Germany will be central to shaping the continent’s response to the challenges of the coming years, including the Trump administration’s confrontational foreign and trade policy.

What are Germans voting for?

More than 59 million people in the nation of 84 million are eligible to elect the 630 members of the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag. The elected members will take their seats under the glass dome of Berlin’s landmark Reichstag building.

Germany’s electoral system rarely produces absolute majorities, and no party looks anywhere near one this time. It is expected that two or more parties will form a coalition, following potentially difficult negotiations that will take weeks or even months before the Bundestag elects the next chancellor.

This election is taking place seven months before it was originally planned after centre-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition collapsed in November, three years into a term that was increasingly marred by infighting. There is widespread discontent and not much enthusiasm for any of the candidates.

Who could take charge?

Centre-right opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s Union bloc has consistently led polls, with 28-32 per cent support in the most recent surveys. Merz is favoured to replace Scholz.

Scholz’s Social Democrats have been polling between 14-16 per cent, which would be their worst postwar result in a national parliamentary election.

The far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has been running in second place with around 20 per cent of the vote. This is well above its previous best of 12.6 per cent in a national election, from 2017. The AfD has fielded its first candidate for chancellor in Alice Weidel. However, other parties have said they will not work with it, a stance often known as the “firewall”.

The environmentalist Greens are also running for the top job, with outgoing Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck. They have been polling slightly behind Scholz’s party.

Merz has pledged “stability instead of chaos” after Scholz’s three-party coalition collapsed following long-running internal arguments, including over how to revitalise the economy.

However, it is unclear whether the conservative leader, if he wins, will be able to put together a stable government that performs much better. Merz hopes for a two-party coalition, but may end up needing a third partner to form a government.

The realistic candidates to join a Merz government are Scholz’s Social Democrats, the Greens, and the pro-business Free Democrats. The Free Democrats were the smallest partner in Scholz’s collapsed government and may not manage to stay in parliament.

The Free Democrats and another small party are hovering at around 5 per cent of the vote, the threshold to qualify for seats in parliament. If they do, there may be no majority for a two-party coalition.

What are the main issues?

The contenders have made contrasting proposals to turn around the German economy, which has shrunk for the past two years and has not managed real growth in much longer. This will be a central task for the new government.

Migration moved to the forefront of the campaign in the past month following deadly attacks committed by immigrants.

Merz vowed to bar people from entering the country without proper papers and to step up deportations if he is elected chancellor. He then brought a nonbinding motion calling for many more migrants to be turned back at Germany’s borders. Parliament approved it by a narrow majority thanks to AfD votes — a first in postwar Germany.

Rivals made Merz’s attitude toward the AfD, which generated protests, an issue. Scholz accused Merz of “irresponsible gambling” and breaking a taboo. Merz has rejected these accusations, saying that he did not and will not work with the AfD. He has repeatedly and categorically said since that his party will “never” do so.

Mainstream parties have vowed to keep up support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. And after the Scholz government reached a NATO target of spending 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence, the next administration will have to find a way to keep that going — and likely expand it, in the face of US demands — once a special 100 billion-euro (USD 105 billion) fund to modernise the military is used up in 2027.