"If US isn't interested in a strong Europe, hard to imagine interest in a strong India": Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer

New Delhi [India], September 19 (ANI): Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin sharing a limousine ride during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in China earlier this week was a meaningful gesture that sent a direct message to Washington amid United States' tarriff push against India's oil imports from Moscow, according to political scientist and Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer.

In an exclusive interview with ANI, Bremmer said, "If the Americans aren't even interested in a strong Europe, it's hard to imagine they're going to be very interested in a strong India. And that is more unilateralist in orientation," Bremmer said on broader strategic alignments.

He recalled that PM Modi, unlike other SCO countries did not sign on the Belt and Road initiative, and also skipped Beijing's World War II commemoration and military parade.

"Nobody that understands geopolitics thinks that this heralds a new trusted India-China entente. That is not in the cards at all. What Modi did do and I think it's meaningful is he got into Putin's limousine, just like Putin got into Trump's limousine in Anchorage a week or so before, and made it very clear as Trump was saying, I'm gonna increase tariffs on you because you're buying all this oil, Modi's saying, I'm gonna do whatever I want with Putin, and I'm not going to listen to you. That was a very direct message."

Bremmer underlined that the move worked for PM Modi. "Appropriately so from Modi's perspective. That was noticed, but it did not lead to negative consequences. In fact, it probably made Trump pay more attention to the need to engage with Modi in a friendlier way. On balance, I would say that worked. I would say that worked."

He highlighted what he described as hypocrisy in Washington's stance. "The White House shows hypocrisy, because it was the Biden administration that basically told India to mop up the Russian oil to stabilize oil prices. And now you have a full 180 over here."

Explaining further, Bremmer said, "If I were going to make the hypocrisy argument, I wouldn't talk about oil. I would talk about the Americans buying Russian uranium, billions of Russian uranium and fertilizer. At the same time, the Americans are telling you don't buy oil, the Americans are buying Russian product and they're not suggesting that they're gonna stop. So that's the hypocrisy."

He added that oil purchases from Moscow were initially seen as necessary to avoid global recession. "The oil situation was a trade-off. The United States was concerned that at the beginning of the war, the Europeans desperately needed energy. They were cutting off the Russians. They were concerned that you would knock the world into a global recession. And there was very little time to engage in alternatives to what the Russians were. And now we're in an environment where Chinese demand is low. It's not growing very much. OPEC is producing and putting more out. The Americans are producing more. So there's less concern about taking some of the Russian oil off of the market. In that regard, there's more willingness on the part of Trump to squeeze."

Bremmer linked this shift to Trump's failed overtures toward Moscow. "Trump already tried the carrot with Putin. He said, I'll get rid of the sanctions, will unfreeze the assets if you do a ceasefire. And it's been six months, and Putin said no. Now he's looking for where the leverage might come from."

On China, Bremmer noted, "Trump has talked about China as well on the oil front. He has on several occasions said that both the Indians and the Chinese are buying a lot. Now, China is more powerful than India. China has shown that they are capable of hitting back the Americans in ways that really hurt, not just on tariffs, which were an effective boycott, mutual boycott, but also on critical minerals. And Trump now is very focused on trying to get to a better place with the Chinese."

He said this approach showed Trump was less likely to press Beijing hard. "I'm not even convinced that the leverage against India amounts to all that much. Telling the Europeans that they need to hit these economies, he's doing just because he wants to blame Europe because he knows Europe isn't gonna do it. That struck me as performative."

Bremmer pointed to a hemispheric tilt in US foreign policy. "The Quad still exists. The Americans are still committed to their troops on the ground in Japan, in South Korea. There is a very significant amount of American military capability with exercises, training, intelligence sharing around the South China Sea. I don't think that's going to suddenly go away over the course of the Trump administration. There is a hemispheric tilt. There is more focus on US border security, a lot more money for ICE, which is the Immigration and Customs Enforcement. There's this Venezuela issue, which has a lot to do with drug interdiction, now that the Mexico border has been secured. But I do accept that the broader idea that India is a long-term strategic counterweight to China for the United States. This is an administration that doesn't think very much about long-term strategic counterweights."

He stressed that America's partners were increasingly worried. "The interesting thing is I speak with leaders around the world and mostly leaders or friends of the United States, but some adversaries too, what they're finding is that the Americans are not just unpredictable, but they're unreliable. Unpredictability makes you make sure that you have resilience because you want to take a bus, it might be late. Unreliability means you can't take the bus. Bus might not get there. And that is a much harder thing for American friends and partners and allies to swallow."

On how India should respond, Bremmer pointed to Brazil. "It's longer-term hedging. The Brazilians are seeing this to a much more urgent degree. They are trying to build stronger trade relations with everyone, with EFTA, with the EU, with ASEAN, with India, with Mexico, with Canada. And I would say look at what Lula is doing and apply that to India over the longer term."

He also welcomed efforts by Modi to stabilise relations with Beijing. "It was Modi's to be congratulated for his efforts to reach out to Xi Jinping not to build a friendship, not to build an alliance, but to stabilize the relationship, which is good not just for India and China, but frankly, it's good for the world. We don't want World War III."

On Washington's ties with Pakistan, Bremmer observed, "This is mostly about business. Jake Sullivan recently wrote a lot about this. I wish that weren't true, but there is a kind of a lack of ethics, a kleptocratic and oligarchic impulse with the family, and a constellation of people that are around the administration, trusted by light, who are conducting a lot of business with Pakistan. And that has brought them in. I don't think it's a particular strategic shift. I think it's opportunistic and it's about some money."

He said diplomacy under Trump often blurred with personal interests. "The lines have been blurred where American diplomacy ends and President Trump's family interests take over."

On the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact, Bremmer remarked, "They certainly knew about it. They certainly knew about it. We knew about it before it was announced. The Saudis were not... it wasn't in the media, but they weren't keeping it completely hush-hush. I knew about it before, like the day before it was announced. I don't think they were trying to be particularly secret about it. But I think this is one that the United States may not have been completely... I don't think the US would have suggested it, but I don't think they had strong objections. It is clearly meant as a hedge to diversify Saudi Arabia's security commitments and support, including on the nuclear side."

Bremmer also addressed the Indian economy. "President Trump posted on Truth Social that this is a dead economy. But then he posted a couple of days later that it was an amazing economy. Between dead and amazing, maybe it's reincarnated. Maybe he's aligned with Indian cultural sensibilities there. It's all performative. Trump changes what he says about you on a dime, depending on how he feels in the moment, it has nothing to do with the Indian economy."

He emphasised that India's fundamentals remain strong. "There are a lot of reasons why India has been growing quite a bit. It has strong leadership. It's had a lot of structural reform internally. The cost base is still quite low. Infrastructure is still challenging, but it's better than it used to be. Corruption is still challenging, but it's better than it used to be. And you've got an awful lot of human capital. The talent base is unquestioned."

On trade ties, Bremmer concluded, "An India trade deal can be a broad India trade deal that can occur with the United States, and you're still going to be buying Russian oil. It's just one more thing that they've been talking about. The fact that there is a negotiation in place, that the leaders are talking to each other. Trump wants to be seen as having successful deals. And when one is inked, he'll be happy." (ANI)

(This content is sourced from a syndicated feed and is published as received. The Tribune assumes no responsibility or liability for its accuracy, completeness, or content.)