Pakistan experts term Imran Khan’s threat to quit assemblies an attempt to ‘stay politically relevant’

Khan said that his party had decided to resign from the provincial assemblies instead of marching on Islamabad to force the Shehbaz Sharif-led government to announce snap polls

Imran Khan. Reuters file

PTI

Islamabad, November 27

Pakistan’s former premier Imran Khan’s threat to quit the assemblies is an attempt to “stay politically relevant” and “an invitation for renewed engagement” with the new military leadership, which is all set to take over from next week, according to a media report on Sunday.

Khan made the announcement on Saturday while addressing a mega rally of his supporters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi.

He said that his party had decided to resign from the provincial assemblies instead of marching on Islamabad to force the Shehbaz Sharif-led government to announce snap polls.

The Dawn newspaper after talking to many experts reported that they were unanimous in their view that Khan may not actually follow through on the threat.

They speculated that the PTI leader made the announcement because he had no other option left, after telling his followers that he would spring a surprise at the gathering in Rawalpindi — the headquarters of the powerful military that is also known as the garrison city.

Commenting on the fizzling out of the month-long ‘Haqeeqi Azadi March’, Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (Pildat) President Ahmed Bilal Mehboob was of the view that Khan had no other option but to make such an announcement after creating a massive hype around the long march.

“If [Imran] really wanted to give a surprise, he should have sounded definitive as he had so much time for consultations [with party leaders],” Mehboob said.

He said the PTI had not categorically stated that they would dissolve the assemblies and that mere resignations would not serve the purpose he wanted.

Mehboob pointed out that if PTI members simply opted to resign from the provincial assemblies of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Punjab, they would not be able to force elections.

This would, in fact, be a repeat of what happened in the Centre, where a federal government and a parliament were still functioning despite en-masse resignations by PTI members.

“This means that the PTI only wants to give this threat to see how seriously those with a say in power corridors choose to engage with him,” he said.

When pressed for more clarity, he said that since there had been a change in the military leadership, it seems Khan now wants to seriously engage with them.

In Mehboob’s words, the message he is trying to send is something to the effect of: “Do not take me lightly. I am a very important person. This is the real message”.

Highlighting a ‘contradiction’, the Pildat chief stated that Khan had declared that the PTI did not want to be a part of the corrupt system.

“If that is so, then the president is also a part of the same system. Will he also resign?” he asked.

A ruling party parliamentarian told the Dawn that he believed Khan was basically trying to put pressure on the new military high command “so that they can, in turn, put pressure on the government”.

“The decision is not definitive and final. It is just a signal to the new military leadership that ‘I want to operate within the system, but do ask the government to hold the elections’. His audience was GHQ,” he added.

Another political commentator and journalist Zahid Hussain commented that the move could be taken as a surprise, but there was no clear decision from the PTI yet, as Khan had stated that he would first hold consultations.

“But by doing so, he has actually kept the pot boiling as this long march was to culminate in a sit-in to force elections, which did not happen,” he opined.

According to Hussain, the opposition in the assemblies of Punjab and the KP had the option of moving no-confidence resolutions against the provincial chief ministers to stall the PTI’s move to dissolve the two legislatures.

He was of the view that Khan could dissolve the KP assembly, where the party had its own chief minister and the prospects of winning back the province were brighter, but he might not take such a risk in Punjab, where the party could lose hard-earned ground.

When asked why make the announcement if he does not want to go ahead with it, Hussain said it was meant for his followers, since he needed a pretext to abandon the sit-in plan and the keep the movement alive for a future push.

Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah told Geo News on Saturday that the PTI would not be able to dissolve the Punjab Assembly as a no-confidence motion was ready to be moved.

The minister said that once the requisition had been made, the ruling party would not be able to dissolve the assembly under the Constitution.

According to constitutional experts, if Khan is serious about this move, he will have to make a decision within the next couple of months.

He, technically, has until March to make up his mind, because under the Constitution, if the PTI takes such a decision in April, it will not be able to force elections.

Under Article 224(4) of the Constitution: “When, except by dissolution of the National Assembly or a Provincial Assembly, a general seat in any such Assembly has become vacant not later than one hundred and twenty days before the term of that Assembly is due to expire, an election to fill the seat shall be held within sixty days from the occurrence of the vacancy.” The term of the present legislature is set to expire in August next year.

PTI Senior Vice-President Fawad Chaudhry told the Dawn newspaper after Khan’s speech on Saturday that the party would reach a final decision on the plan to quit assemblies by next week.

When asked if there had been any prior internal consultations, or was Khan’s announcement a surprise for them as well, Chaudhry claimed that the option had come under discussion in several party meetings and they had devised many strategies, this being one of them.

Moreover, he recalled that the PML-N had – on several occasions – asked the PTI to first dissolve assemblies in provinces where it was in power, after which they would be ready to hold elections.

So, he said, “it is not a new thing”.

Commenting on the perception that Khan was, in fact, sending a message to the new army leadership, Chaudhry said the PTI expected the new military leadership not to become a party to the political scenario.

“Unlike the previous military leadership which had taken all the political dispensation in its hands, we hope that the new army leadership would let politicians make their own decisions,” he said.