US shifts stance, sides with Russia on Ukraine war resolution

A stark shift in the United States' policy marks the third anniversary of the current phase of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War.

The world's most powerful nation, and until recently Ukraine's major ally, sided with Russia on January 24 in an attempt to block a draft resolution by Ukraine at the United Nations.

The resolution called for "de-escalation, an early cessation of hostilities, and a peaceful resolution" of the war.

This move, which shook the global diplomatic landscape, came after a 90-minute telephone conversation between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on February 12.

This was the first formal exchange between the two leaders since Trump returned to the White House on January 20 for a second term. It is said to have included a range of security, diplomatic, and economic issues.

This was followed by a meeting of delegations led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh on February 19. Among other issues of mutual interest, ending the Russia-Ukraine war featured prominently.

Notably, representatives from Ukraine and other European countries were not part of this event. India, walking a diplomatic tightrope, abstained from the January 25 UN vote, as it has been doing in the past on resolutions pertaining to the war. Both Russia and Ukraine are considered strategic partners by India. China, aligned with Russia, also abstained from voting.

Ninety three countries, including major European nations, voted in favor of the resolution, 18, including Russia, the US, Israel, and Hungary, voted against it, and 65 abstained. The numbers are significant as they show dwindling support for Ukraine, down from 140 in favor of Ukraine at the start of the war. On February 24, 2022, Putin announced a "special military operation" to "demilitarise and denasify" Ukraine.

He also claimed that Russia had no plans to occupy the country. Russian troops entered Ukraine, starting what is said to be the biggest, longest, and bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War II. Russia now holds about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. The origins of the present military confrontation lie in February 2014. Following Ukraine's "Revolution of Dignity" and the ousting of its pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and began supporting pro-Russian separatists against the Ukrainian military in the Donbas region. The first eight years of conflict included naval incidents and cyberwarfare.

In 2021, Russia started a massive military buildup near Ukraine's borders, including within neighboring Belarus. By February 2022, western analysts estimated that 190,000 Russian troops were deployed opposite Ukraine, and an invasion seemed imminent. Ukraine had been part of the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) until its collapse in 1991. It became an independent country like the other 15 component states of the USSR.

Geographically, Ukraine is among the largest of the republics and holds substantial natural resources and mineral wealth. It has a deeply related social, cultural, and economic interplay with Russia going back to historic times. Its post-independence journey has also not been too smooth, marked by periods of internal disturbance, conflicts, and corruption.

Ukraine's move to align itself more with the West and its desire to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), a post-World War II military alliance of 30 countries against Russia, and Ukraine's refusal to join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Community, a free trade agreement, are among the chief factors for the current conflict.

A few minutes after Putin announced the launch of his military operation early in the morning on February 24, 2022, explosions were heard in major cities across Ukraine as Russian missiles and aircraft struck. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, declared martial law and ordered general mobilization of the military-age population.

Over the past three years, the war has played out unpredictably, with some gains and losses for either side. While Russia was unable to take Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, it has occupied large tracts along the border. Ukraine, on the other hand, has seized some chunks of land in the Kursk area.

All this while, the West, including the US, has provided weapons and financial aid to Kyiv, besides support in international forums. The war also gave a glimpse of the new age warfare, such as the employment of drones. Drones have been used not only to strike deep into enemy territory but also as tactical battlefield weapons to take out troops and armored vehicles on the ground and conduct reconnaissance. Information and psychological warfare were also in play, with videos of warfighting and damages being circulated to project particular narratives.

Some military experts claim that these videos seem to have been generated through artificial intelligence rather than being real. Of all the weapons used in the conflict, the one that seized global attention was Russia's new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik." It was launched at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. This was the first ever use in combat of a ballistic missile with multiple independently guided warheads, though smaller missiles with lesser range and single warheads have been used in various theaters, including Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Gulf before. The war has not only proved to be hugely costly for both sides, in terms of human casualties and material losses as well as straining their economies, but also had an impact on global trade.

It has altered supply chains of critical commodities such as food, oil, gas, and metal and affected financial transactions. Neither side has released official details, though experts estimate that "tens of thousands" have perished since 2022, and many more have been wounded, with Ukraine suffering huge damage to its infrastructure. Earlier, the United Nations estimated that the conflict in the Donbas had claimed 14,000 lives between 2014 and 2021, with roughly a quarter of the casualties being civilians.

India, which has close economic and security relations with both countries, has also been impacted by the war. It has affected trade, cutting crucial supplies, increasing input costs, and reducing exports, besides making it difficult for Indian businesses to plan for the future. '

The Indian Armed Forces also depend on these countries for military hardware, and the war disrupted supplies of spare parts and allied services. India had to tread cautiously in the geopolitical arena and astutely walk the diplomatic tightrope by positioning itself as a peacemaker and facilitator, given its cordial relations not only with the two warring nations but also with other nations, particularly the European community, that have a stake in the war. Like all wars and other geopolitical events, this war has also thrown up lessons for India in the military, diplomatic, economic, and energy security domains.

Trump and Putin are expected to meet shortly in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, where the agenda of the war and ways to end it would be on the table. When and how will the war end, and what concessions would either side make are being eagerly awaited. Already, Trump has signaled that the US is not keen to extend support to Kyiv, Ukraine is not welcome in NATO, and that it may have to give up territory seized by Russia so far. All this while the US president has floated a narrative that Ukraine was responsible for starting the war.

Trump reaching out to Putin while calling for reduced American involvement in Europe's security has already created ripples in NATO, and Europe's future security architecture now pivots on the interplay between Washington and Moscow.