What's behind surge in attacks and train hijacking in Pakistan's restive southwest

Pakistan's neglected southwestern province of Balochistan has been the scene of a years-long insurgency, with a dramatic uptick in attacks in recent years underscoring the struggles the government in Islamabad faces in dealing with myriad security threats.

However, the hijacking of a passenger train on Tuesday was the first time the outlawed Baloch Liberation Army, or BLA, carried out such a large-scale operation, taking hundreds of people aboard the train hostage and battling Pakistani security forces to a standoff on Wednesday.

Islamabad-based independent analyst Abdullah Khan told The Associated Press that the train hijacking was the worst attack to date by the BLA — and predicted the country will be shocked when the final details surface, including the number of casualties, which he expects to be high.

At least 30 militants were killed in initial exchanges of gunfire around the Jaffer Express since the BLA attacked the train. By late Wednesday, security forces had rescued 190 of the 450 passengers who were initially on the train, according to officials.

Who are the separatists and what are they fighting for

Balochistan is Pakistan's largest province and the country's least populated. It's also a hub for the country's ethnic Baloch minority, whose members say they face discrimination by the government.

The separatists have fought since the early 2000s for autonomy — if not outright independence — from Islamabad and for a greater share of natural resources that the undeveloped province abounds in, such as natural gas, oil and minerals.

Over the years, the BLA has grown in strength, prompting some analysts to say the group today compares to the Pakistani Taliban in terms of the threat it poses for the country.

The BLA has regularly targeted Pakistani security forces and has also in the past attacked civilians, including Chinese nationals working on multibillion-dollar projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. It has also staged attacks beyond Balochistan, including in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city.

Although the government insists it has significantly curbed violence, attacks in Balochistan have not abated. Islamic militant groups also operate in the province.

Why now

The BLA, which both Pakistan and the United States have designated a terrorist organisation, and is estimated to have around 3,000 fighters, promptly claimed responsibility for the attack on Tuesday.

The group seeks to establish an independent Baloch state, encompassing territories in Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan where the Baloch ethnic group lives.

The Pakistani government claims that there is a degree of cooperation between the BLA and the country's top militant group, the Pakistani Taliban.

Analysts say the BLA has grown more emboldened since the Pakistani Taliban ended a cease-fire with the government in November 2022, encouraging more militant attacks across the country.

What's the bigger picture

Separately from the rivalry with India, Pakistan has also had a tense relationship with neighbouring Iran, contributing to the insecurity in Balochistan.

The two countries share a 900-kilometre border, which remains largely ungoverned, allowing smugglers and militant groups to move about freely. Both governments accuse each other of harbouring or tolerating insurgent groups.

Economic factors also drive the unrest, said Khan, the analyst, adding that it does not bode well for Pakistan's economy.

“Who will come and invest in Pakistan if we keep seeing such attacks,” he said.

Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative has poured billions of dollars into Pakistan but it has also alienated the Baloch minority further. They say Islamabad is exploiting Balochistan's resources while neglecting the local communities.

However, Syed Muhammad Ali, a security analyst, said that while the train attack may have provided the BLA with “instant public and media attention”, the likely civilian deaths from the attack will ultimately "weaken their support base” among the province's population.