Delivering Through Disruption: Lessons from a Geopolitical Stress Test

When unforeseen events test our nation, it is often the silent gears of our foundational systems that keep the country moving. The recent period of geopolitical turbulence was such a test. While the true human cost rightly remains our foremost concern and is beyond compare, these moments also reveal the character and capability of critical infrastructure – particularly India’s logistics network, the vital system connecting products to people across our vast country.

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By analyzing over 70 million shipments spanning from early April to late May, 2025, we observed more than just numbers (ClickPost data). We saw a story of adaptation, human endeavour, and multifaceted resilience unfold, directly impacting businesses, logistics workers, and consumers.

In the relatively calm early days, the efficiency of India's logistics was remarkable. Leading couriers like Delhivery and Ecom Express consistently demonstrated high operational efficiency. On peak days, such as Mondays, we saw over 430,000 shipment attempts nationwide, with an overall delivery success rate holding strong at around 62.75%. This was the rhythm of a nation in motion.

Then, the Storm Hit

The strain was immediate. Delivery attempts during the crisis period understandably declined, roughly by over a third from daily pre-crisis averages. The nationwide delivery success rate dipped to 60.4%. The impact, however, varied significantly across the network. Operations near the western border faced the most severe challenges; some courier services in these zones saw success rates fall below 55%, with their daily shipment volumes effectively halving. Many regional couriers, the vital last-mile connectors for countless Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, experienced a sharp increase in pickup failures and manifest delays, creating pressing bottlenecks.

This disruption wasn’t just operational; it spread to customer experience as well. Return requests surged by 17.5%, with an average of 284,465 daily return requests, compared to 240,655 in the pre-crisis period. Customers, frustrated by delayed deliveries, opted to return items, adding further pressure on the system. The ripple effect was clear: customers in uncertain circumstances were not just waiting for deliveries but actively seeking to undo transactions. These challenges, compounded by operational strain, were felt on the ground by every segment of the logistics chain.

Yet, this is where the strength of a diverse ecosystem became apparent. Major players like Blue Dart and FedEx managed to maintain steadier service levels, particularly within Tier 1 metros, acting as crucial shock absorbers for the entire system. Their capacity helped buffer some of the most acute disruptions.

Resilience Kicked In

Even as the system struggled with clearing immense backlogs — evidenced by daily shipment delays sometimes exploding to over 13,000 — recovery began to take shape. The success rate began its climb back, reaching over 61%. We even saw early signs of adaptive market shifts, with emerging sectors like Financial Services showing initial activity as businesses adjusted. This recovery was a testament to the human element of logistics.

The logistics system’s resilience was further exemplified by the NDR (Non-Delivery Reports) resolution rates, which peaked at an impressive 96.8% during the height of the crisis. Despite the overwhelming number of delivery failures and rising NDRs, logistics teams were able to maintain exceptional resolution efforts during the most intense disruptions. Yet, as the crisis transitioned into recovery, the resolution rate understandably dropped to 79.3%, as backlog cases accumulated and resources became stretched.

Moreover, when deliveries were successfully made, the logistics system demonstrated a remarkable commitment to SLA (Service Level Agreement) adherence. All successful deliveries during this period were marked as “within SLA,” even amidst the chaos. This focus on maintaining service standards during disruption speaks volumes about the strength and adaptability of the logistics network.

Certain segments showcased remarkable stability throughout. Prepaid and high-priority orders, for example, consistently achieved success rates above 80%. Shipments in resilient e-commerce categories like Cosmetics and Fashion also maintained success rates over 82%, a testament to strong partnerships and robust supply chains.

And Behind Every Percentage Point Are People

As the numbers surged, so did the pressure on the people behind them. The considerable impact of increased return requests and mounting NDRs placed immense pressure on the logistics workforce, but it also brought out the best in them. Teams worked relentlessly to resolve issues, and the exceptional peak in NDR resolution during the crisis, as previously noted, reflected the extraordinary effort of the customer service teams and logistics professionals on the front lines.

This dedication persisted even as those resolution rates later faced the strain of overwhelming backlogs. The human element of logistics was never more evident than in these moments of crisis — drivers navigating challenging routes, warehouse teams working extended hours, and customer service agents addressing anxious customers with empathy. The resilience of these individuals, operating under immense strain, was the true backbone of the logistics network’s recovery.

Lessons and What Lies Ahead

This deep dive into the data offers clear lessons. The resilience of Indian logistics isn't monolithic; it's built on the diverse strengths of varied players – from large-scale national couriers to specialized regional experts. Technology, providing real-time tracking and flexible routing, was undeniably crucial. And critically, this period reaffirmed the indispensable human element – the drivers, warehouse staff, and customer service agents whose commitment underpins the entire operation. Investing in their support and in contingency planning for geopolitical risks is paramount.

India's supply chain weathered this storm, not because it is perfect, but because it is robust, adaptable, and full of people willing to go the extra mile. This journey of 70 million shipments is more than a dataset; it's a testament to a system that, when tested to its limits, demonstrated an extraordinary capacity to adapt, persevere, and keep India's commerce alive. It’s a foundation of strength upon which we must continue to build an even more robust and responsive future.

Content produced by Naman Vijay, CoFounder and CEO, ClickPost

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