|
The bridge on the
river teesta
Signals emanating from Bangladesh are disturbing. The Awami League Government headed by Sheikh Hasina has been pushed on the backfoot for its alleged pro-India tilt. India’s failure to honour its commitments has given a handle to the anti-India forces and has triggered both cynicism and extremism. A historic opportunity appears to be slipping away.
Shyamal Datta The Awami League Govt. in Bangladesh has lost some of its sheen since coming to office after a thumping electoral victory in 2008. Its arch rival the BNP, is slowly and gradually coming out of political oblivion, exploiting to the hilt, the growing nexus of the party in power with India and,of late,tardy implementation of several accords it has reached with the neighbour.

A view of Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh
|
The party has not countenanced initiative taken by Sheikh Hasina to affirm in no uncertain terms, that the extremist and fundamentalist forces will not be allowed to use the soil of her country for perpetrating depredations across the border. The Opposition is also peeved at the inking of several path breaking agreements with India during the Awami leader's land mark visit to India in January 2010, followed by the return visit of the Indian Prime Minister in Sepember 2011. In this backdrop , strong resolve on the part of the two Prime Ministers to address several of the prickly and vexed issues pending for decades, also caused serious discomfiture to the BNP leadership. What added grist to their propaganda machine against India and the Awami League in particular, was the last minute withdrawal of the proposed accord on sharing of Teesta waters from the bilateral agenda on the eve of the Indian Prime Minister's visit to Bangladesh . It gave ammunition to the BNP to fire volleys and say that the fact India has let down Bangladesh on such a sensitive issue, was yet another proof of India's duplicious conduct towards its neighbour. The party deprecated the appeasement policy of the Awami League Govt. towards India, compromising strategic interests of Bangladesh. The vilification campaign denied the visit of Manmohan Singh, unparallelled in many ways, the triumph it deserved.
Anti-India rhetoric The echo of anti India rhetoric was heard loud and clear in the massive turn-outs that marked the demonstrations organised by the BNP in recent months against the ruling party. Some of these demonstrations turned violent and gave rise to serious law and order problems in the national capital and some other places in Bangladesh. The recent border incidents resulting in unfortunate deaths and humiliation of some nationals of Bangladesh, price rise, inflation and frequent collapse of stock exchange etc have only added momentum to anti Govt. demonstrations.
The thrust has been against decisions of the Awami League Govt like the abolition of the care taker system, setting up of the Election Commission ,trial of war criminals, amendments of the constitution to disqualify war criminals to either form political parties or contest election, alleged victimisation of the family members of Khaleda Zia, quashing of cases against Awami League supporters while vigorously pursuing cases against the BNP cadres etc. Of ominous concern is the detection of conspiracy allegedly hatched by some Army Officers and Islamist elements to stage a coup against the Hasina Govt. An impression is ,thus, gaining ground that not only the countdown to the Election in late 2013 has begun, but all out efforts , democratic and undemocratic, are also likely to follow to make things really very tough and difficult for Sheikh Hasina to complete her stint in office. The bugle of political war has been sounded. Concerned at the surge of protest, the Bangladesh Govt. has embarked upon an urgent mission of taking serious stock of the progress made in the implementation of several of the agreements signed with India in the past three years, and take urgent measures to make things better and show results on the ground for all to see and feel the difference.
Promises pendingThe impending Home Ministers-level talks between the two neighbours are to address some of the border incidents, implementation of Border Agreement etc., and take remedial measures on a war footing. The Indian Finance Minister is to visit Bangladesh this month to assess the implementation of accords in general, and commitments made in particular. There is a growing perception that the agreements and commitments have not been executed with the sense of urgency that they deserved. For instance,the loan of 1 billion dollar agreed under August 2010 agreement by India, has virtually remained untapped due to tough conditions laid down. Now it is feared that because of this constraint, some of the projects (8 out of 21) might have to be abandoned. It is really disconcerting that in spite of a lot of water having flown down the Teesta, ever since Mamata Banerji blocked the proposed Accord , nothing much has really moved on the ground to kindle hope of early resolution of the differences on the important issue. It only shows a lack of seriousness and urgency on the part of India to reach a settlement in view of the sensitivities and importance attached to the issue. The dithering by India to clear impediments to the implementation of the treaty on the exchange of 162 enclaves because of opposition by the BJP against the land swap deal has also thickened the fog of suspicion on the intent of India .The latter needs to appreciate the bold gesture on the part of Sheikh Hasina to have walked several extra miles in the teeth of strong opposition, to deliver on the security front, and the political capital that she has invested in casting her lot with India. The slow follow up on the agreements/accords and commitments has impaired the ability of the Hasina Govt. to counter effectively the malicious campaign unleashed by the Opposition combined with fundamentalist elements, by showing results on the economic and security fronts. In the absence of that, the relentless campaign by the Opposition and extremist groups against the transit facilities, connecting India's North East and action against regional insurgents operating from Bangladesh is having an impact of its own on cross sections of people. Even some within the ruling party have shown a measure of scepticism about the uni dimensional policy of the party.The recent abortive coup revealed that India centric views of the present Govt., and the influence of radical and extremist forces inspired the mind of the plotters.
What India must doIn the circumstances, the least that India can do is to give a green signal to the Teesta deal without much ado, implement the boundary protocol as committed, make operational the long pending transit facilities, dispel the misunderstandings on the environmental issues that delay the execution of the Tipaimukh hydro project etc. and go all out making the joint endeavour of the two Govts. to reach their logical ends and their fruits enjoyed by people on both sides of the border. Bangladesh and India cannot any more nurse and sustain mistrust and hostilities between the two and lag behind economically. Such a suicidal step would amount to putting the clock back and courting disaster of sort. Though long forty years have passed, the scars of history of the early years of liberation of Bangladesh are still to heal. The country continues to remain mired in all that went wrong between 1975 and 1991. The political spectrum of the country remains vitiated by the diametrically diverge orientations of the two parties that have come to represent two families with their feuds and political vendetta arraigned against one another. As a result of the internecine hostilities between the two dynasties, democracy, secularism, peace and development have suffered. Like in Pakistan, religious fundamentalism has struck roots in the country at a time when Islamists and Salafis are making their presence felt in the political firmament of the Arab world and nearer home in Maldives. This has happened since one of the military rulers, like in Pakistan , declared Islam as the religion of the state. Consequently, history of the divided sub-continent has remained as one of mistrust and suspicion.
The onus on youthHistory has offered a unique opportunity to correct the follies of the past in the aftermath of the emergence of the Awami League Govt. riding on the crest of support of the youth, sixty per cen of whom were born after the liberation of Bangladesh. This opportunity may not last long, if it is not seized now with a sense of purpose and seriousness. New dynamics have been set in motion by the youth of digital world in Bangladesh. In the 2008 Elections they exercised their right to franchise without being guided by any religious or parochial considerations. They voted for a regime that would promise growth, development, peace and prosperity. They showed their disdain for personalised politics influenced by dynastic considerations. They wanted the politics of the country to rise above all pettiness and deliver improvement in the living conditions of people. What has added momentum and dynamism to their way of thinking is the emergent 31 million strong Bangladeshi middle class, making their presence felt with their academic qualifications and technical skills in the world market. The political establishments of both the countries have to take serious note of these developments and unfreeze their attitude to agree that the destiny of the two neighbours having over 4000 km long border, lies in their friendly and pragmatic relations to grow and prosper together and not apart. India, on the other hand, with 8 times the population and 12 times the GDP of Bangladesh, has to show a greater sense of adjustment, accommodation and reciprocity in transforming the bilateral relations into a strategic partnership at different levels. In a fast changing situation, both the countries have to appreciate and practise bipartisan politics and skillful diplomacy. The two have to realise that any imbalance in relationship is going to make it fragile, allowing some countries in the region to exploit and keep the two natural neighbours divided. It is well known that their game has been to fish in troubled waters and enlarge influence and promote their interests. The historic opportunity that is available, should propel both Bangladesh and India to show how the two can grow and prosper jointly, sharing ownership of culture and civilisation as the plank of strong fraternal relations. Failure to do so, will amount to staging a retreat from the battle field , conceding ground to the forces known for their hostility to the cause of the two peoples, civilisationally together for ages. Their aim is to target the Hasina Govt. through legitimate and illegitimate means, and burn the bridges sought to be built between the two neighbours . An immediate beneficiary of such diabolical designs will be the extremist and religious groups while security will be a serious casualty. The viability of the 'Look East Policy' of India, which hinges on greater access to maritime and land transits through Bangladesh will be in serious doubts. The fate of 5 crore land locked people of the North East which has great prospect of well being, besides people of the contiguous areas across the borders, as a result of connectivities through Bangladesh and Myanmar will once again come under cloud. In such a scenario, what will really be a determinant factor is the attitude and mental make-up of the young electorate of Bangladesh. They will face the challenge of either getting swayed by the pernicious propaganda of the Opposition or coming to grips with the situation and thwart with all force and sincerity under their command, the sinister designs of fundamentalist forces and all those aligned with them to try and drive Bangladesh on theocratic lines. Their salvation and that of the region will lie in making a tryst with destiny that takes care of the past to script a future which is modern, stable, and prosperous. Then only will the two countries of India and Bangladesh evolve into a regional economic bloc to be able to influence the economic destiny of East/South Asia and the world in general, founded on democracy, secularism and good neighbourly relations.
The author is former Director, Intelligence Bureau
THE DEAL OVER TEESTA n
The river originates from a glacier in Sikkimn
Bangladesh currently receives 25 per cent of the water n
According to a tentative deal, the water will be shared equally by India and B’Desh n
Bangladesh depends on the water for irrigation during the dry months of December-March. n
Mamata Banerjee has objected to the deal because NHPC is putting up two hydel plants that will require water from
Teesta. n
Also, the Teesta canal water irrigates 60,000 hectares of land in North Bengal and the irrigated area is being extended to 9.22 lakh hectares
INDIAN CONCERNSn
Illegal immigrants from Bangladesh n
Extremist groups using B’Desh as transit and sanctuary n
Islamic fundamentalist groups fanning anti-India sentiment n
Use of ports in Bangladesh and land corridor to the North-East n
Promoting Indian investment and energy-sharing
BANGLADESH COMPLAINSn
India announced a $ 1 billion loan in 2010 but set such tough conditions that it could not be availed. n
Exchange of 162 enclaves on the border agreed but not followed up. n
India went back on Teesta water sharing agreement n
Not enough done to stop smuggling of Indian products n
Transit facilities, visa regulations, work permits and boundary protocol not finalised n
Increasing trade gap to create a balance of payment crisis n
Direct air link with India’s North-East not followed up
 |