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Stranger than fiction
Osama findings are damning, blame is generic
by B.G. Verghese
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as in Alice's Wonderland, things in Pakistan seem to get increasingly curious to the point that unfolding events and explanations strain credulity. The latest bewildering twist in the tale is the report of the official inquiry committee set up by the previous government in Islamabad to look into the saga of the fugitive Osama bin Laden's mysterious sojourn and killing by US Navy Seals in Abbottabad after nine years of hiding in Pakistan. The Commission, headed by Justice Javed Iqbal and with three other members, specifically sought early publication of the report. This was withheld and finally leaked to Al Jazeera last week minus a possibly critical page of evidence by the then ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha.Even at the time of the US raid to get Osama, the world wondered how his presence in the high-security garrison town of Abbottabad, near Pakistan's prestigious Army Staff College, went unnoticed and unchallenged when his abode there stood out like a sore thumb. His newly-constructed, illegally-built and hermetically-sealed "fortress" with high walls and barbed wire was bereft of external activity and officially registered as "uninhabited" despite harbouring Osama, his wives, children and aides, numbering 27 residents in all, since 2005. The native curiosity of neighbourhood residents and the prying eyes of Pakistan's police and intelligence services were astonishingly never attracted to this unusual mansion. The 336-page report is scathing in denouncing the absolute incompetence, lack of vigilance, criminal negligence, lack of coordination and follow up by the civil and military authorities at all levels. The ISI chief, Pasha, is quoted as describing what happened as the "collective systemic failure" of a "failing state" suffering from a "governance implosion syndrome". The Army is indicted for "exercise of authority and influence in policy and administrative areas for which it has neither constitutional nor legal authority, nor the necessary expertise and competence". The findings are damning and the blame generic. Nobody is specifically charged for utter dereliction of duty, although the Commission was required to "assign responsibility". The report concludes that it is unnecessary to name those responsible "as it is obvious who they are"! No action is recommended against anybody but it is piously pleaded that "the honourable thing must be done" through a "formal apology" to the nation. When everybody is declared guilty, nobody is held guilty, let alone accountable. The thieves come out smelling of roses! As for the US raid that killed Osama, this is described as an "act of war" on the part of the Americans and a Pakistani "intelligence-security failure". The Pakistan Army and the Air Force reacted only after the commotion, a helicopter crash, gunfire and the escape. The Commission attributes this to the Pakistan military's blinding obsession with India resulting in a mistaken focus on its eastern border when the larger threat came from US drone and jihadi attacks from the West. This, of course, is Pakistan's founding malaise - a weird commitment to what is called the "Ideology of Pakistan" that entails defending a narrow, radicalised, divisive and perverted form of Islam, and the "ideological frontiers" of Pakistan, which centres on Kashmir but leaves Pakistan without any positive identity of its own. This message is slowly going home to the people of Pakistan. But the problem is to dethrone the military-mullah complex that has wrought so much havoc and is not yet ready to let go. The third and not least important aspect of the Commission's report is the finding of the manner in which Osama bin Laden was killed. He did not die in combat. He was unarmed and did not seek to take shelter behind wives. He did not resist and was executed in cold blood. The Americans will protest that Osama was the brain behind 9/11 and was killed in battle. None knew that he was unarmed and had no armed support at hand. That may be true, but the US must be held to the same standards it demands of others. Thirty bullets were pumped into the man. There was no time for dalliance. He was not asked to surrender. He was assassinated and buried somewhere at sea. End of story. They all lived happily ever after. The Commission's report provides a convenient exit for all the dramatis personae: civil, military, intelligence, and the US. Had Osama been taken alive there would have been cause to bring him to justice in a trial in which some of his revelations could have proved very embarrassing as many skeletons in the US-NATO cupboard, much duplicity, deceit and double-dealing, might have come alive. For Pakistan, a mysterious "they" were guilty but "we" are okay. Pakistan milked its strategic importance for the US in its War on Terror in every way. It used it as a cover to cosy up to the Taliban, furthering AQ Khan's nuclear gamesmanship, cultivating jihadis for cross-border terror in India, and blackmailing the US to pay more and yet more for its perfidy. It is perfectly possible the Commission's findings are in order and singular incompetence all down the line was indeed responsible for the incredible farce enacted. Yet, can a more diabolical hypothesis be altogether discounted without deeper scrutiny? This is that the Pakistanis knew or got to know where Osama was hiding but played along with him as a possible lever against the US and finally connived with the US which was by now ready to have him eliminated in a manner that might suit all concerned, with no questions asked. In other words, Abbottabad could have been an extravaganza carefully contrived and executed and televised as high-drama to lay to rest what remains an untold story. Everybody benefits. The US and Pakistan will surely denounce such speculation. But they have lied too much and could be protesting too much. Pakistan has classically been in denial since 1947. It may be beginning to turn over a new leaf and the recent elections show some stirrings of democracy. Islamabad may therefore want to put this part of its past behind it and move on. The US too is poised to withdraw militarily from or thin down its forces in Afghanistan in 2014, trying to close a messy and costly chapter that has haunted it since Iraq. The jury is still out on these conjectures. The "victorious" closing of the Osama chapter makes it possible for the US to open a new chapter. Pakistan in turn has had to swallow a bitter pill but could find in this a possible way to wipe the slate clean and make a new democratic beginning. The sordid episode should strengthen Nawaz Sharif's hands internally. But the military-mullah complex has not given up and sees opportunity in the Afghanistan unfolding. India should nonetheless continue to hold out a hand of friendship to its beleaguered neighbour across the board even while holding Islamabad to its renewed promise not to encourage cross-border
terror.
www.bgverghese.com
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MIDDLE |
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Of oranges and pumpkins
by Vinod Prakash Gupta In
the North-East, according to a newspaper report, boys have names such as 'Tingtong', 'High Court' and 'Crime fighter'; a dog is named 'Kutta Dog', a doctor's clinic is called 'Jurassic Clinic' and a school is known as 'Education school'. I belong to Nahan in Sirmour district of Himachal Pradesh, a princely state, founded by Maharaja Karan Prakash in 1621. Nahan town is known for its peculiar style of language - a mixture of Hindi, Haryanvi, Punjabi, Pahari and a bit of English, making it a distinct slang and some may take it as a rather rude way of addressing fellow citizens. Mostly people are addressed by their peculiar physical deficiencies, or by their caste, colour, gender, profession and other negative characteristics or financial status. For example some persons are distinctly called and known by such curious epithets as Kala Baniya (black trader), Desh Raj Langra (Desh Raj with a broken leg), Kundan Tona ( Kundan hard of hearing), Roda Padha (bald priest), Ghau (fat like an elephant) - to mention a few. Families are known even today by such epithets, and nobody minds it. Once, a junior colleague from Nahan came to meet me. Though I knew him by face, I could not clearly recall to which family he belonged. Seeing my hesitation, he himself came out with the familiar epithet given to his family that he was the grandson of 'Kundan Tona'. In a split second all his credentials became clear. There are many local popular sayings like
Nahan Ki Dhee Bihao do Kahin Rahegi Yahin (Nahan daughters may be married anywhere but will stay in Nahan). My biggest surprise was about the shibboleth
Hamare Nahan Me to Kaddu Kee Bel Me Santare Lagte Hain (In our Nahan oranges grow on the climbers of pumpkins). Why and how this attribute was associated with the people of Nahan is still clothed in mystery. A few old persons, known to explain such riddles, attributed this saying to Mandi people. In the sixties, all Himachal school tournaments were held at Nahan and this cliché was (an apocryphal) generated there, as explained by one old sportsperson who participated in the tournament. The people of Nahan have the irresistible habit of exaggerating news, stories and embellish tales of different kinds while narrating these to people. Mandi students took it as bragging about things without any knowledge and merely on hearsay and that too by coating, many layers of their own juicy, unauthentic and gossipy version on it and they, while leaving on the last day of the tournament, called aloud
Hamare Nahan Me to Kaddu Ki Bel Me Santare Lagte Hain. Notwithstanding these attributes, the natives of Nahan are simple, social and lovable and the city is one of the most charming hill stations known for its landscape, cleanliness, underground drainage and well-developed urban infrastructure. Therefore, the most suitable and authentic saying that still holds good is —
Nahan Shahar Nagina, Aaye the Ek din Reh Gaye Mahina (City of Nahan is like a jewel, people come for one day here but stay for a
month). 
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OPED
Economy |
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Why jobless growth in India is a worry
NN Sachitanand
Job creation has not kept pace with the rising population. The UPA has been absorbed in furthering a broader sharing of the national cake through subsidies. It has neither had the time nor inclination to increase the size of the cake.

The employment growth has slowed in financial intermediation and business services. This has serious implications for the educated youth who hope to land IT jobs. File photo: Manoj Mahajan
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Every
year, 10 million young adults will be entering the job market between now and 2020. Compare this with the fact that net addition to employment grew by only 2.7 million between 2004-05 and 2009-10, when the country’s GDP growth rate was as high as 8 to 9 per cent, according to a report of the National Sample Survey Organisation published in June 2011. Analysts have attributed this “jobless growth” phenomenon to increase in labour productivity. In the ‘90s, employment and labour productivity grew at similar rates, whereas between 2004-05 and 2009-10, total employment grew by only 0.1 per cent whereas labour productivity grew by 34 per cent. Looking at the problem in another way, the employment intensity — the number of employed persons per Rs 1 lakh of real GDP — declined from 1.71 in 2005 to 1.05 in 2010. This trend will continue as more and more mechanisation, automation and computerisation is brought in into all sectors of the economy in order to maintain global competitiveness. That is not a good outlook for the creation of a large number of jobs in the future, even if the rate of GDP growth picks up. According to a CRISIL research paper, the pattern of employment generation was lopsided during 2005-2010. In manufacturing — a crucial source of jobs for relatively high-skilled labour —employment declined by nearly 7 per cent, despite a faster growth in manufacturing output. In services, employment growth slowed in financial intermediation and business services — a key source of salaried jobs. This has very serious implications for the educated youth who are joining the labour market by the millions every year and hoping to land IT jobs. In contrast, employment grew by almost 70 per cent in the construction sector, but it was mainly in day-wage jobs for uneducated persons.
Casual labourEven more worrying is the fact that there has been an increasing “casualisation” of employment generation in the last decade. Between 2000 and 2005, casual employment accounted for 30 per cent of the new jobs generated; this rose to over 75 per cent of the jobs generated during 2005-10. A fundamental reason for this rise in “casuals” is the restrictive labour laws regarding layoffs which frighten establishments from taking on more permanent employees and instead, depend more on casual labour or outsourcing of work. A preponderance of casual labour is not a healthy sign for the economy since the income levels of this segment are too low to generate the spending surplus needed to drive a high rate of growth. In fact, this is one of the reasons why the share of manufacturing in total employment dropped from 12.2 per cent in 2005 to 11.4 per cent in 2010, although the contribution of manufacturing to GDP growth has increased in the same period. From 2000 to 2005, manufacturing GDP grew by 6.5 per cent and employment by 43 per cent but between 2005 and 2010, while the manufacturing GDP grew by 9.5 per cent, employment actually shrank by 6.3 per cent. Most of the employment growth in the industry has taken place in the construction sector whose share in employment has almost doubled to 10 per cent in 2010 from 5.5 per cent in 2005. However, construction jobs do not demand a high level of education. This has led to a huge gap between the output (1 million per year today) and demand for engineering graduates. That the services sector will see a huge growth in employment opportunities has turned out to be a partial myth. Addition to employment in services stood at a mere 8.6 million in the second half of the 2000s as compared to over 30 million in the first half, though all service sectors grew faster in the second half of the decade. The latest employment data issued by the Central Government looks better in that some 14 million jobs have been added between 2009-10 and 2011-12. However, further analysis shows that the scene is still very dismal. The number of people actually employed within the labour force has declined from 420 per 1,000 in the financial year 2005 to 386 in the financial year 2012. This means the rate of job creation has not kept pace with the increase in population. How has the country come to this pass? The primary reason is the drastic slowdown in investment over the past decade. The UPA government, under Sonia Gandhi’s management and nudging from her National Advisory Council, has been obsessed with furthering a broader sharing of the national cake through subsidies. It has neither had the time nor inclination to take measures to increase the size of the cake.
Alarm bellsHuge infrastructure and industrial projects involving an outlay of many lakhs of crores of rupees are awaiting all sorts of clearances for the past five to 10 years. These could have generated tens of millions of new jobs. According to the government’s Economic Survey for 2012-13, investment by the corporate sector registered a sharp decline from 17.3 per cent of the GDP in 2007-08 to 10.6 per cent in 2011-12. A surge in corporate investment is the key to higher economic growth. The sharp fall in corporate investment, which is the source of future growth as well as employment, is worrisome. When the water has risen up to the neck, with the GDP growth rate plummeting below 5 per cent and the parliamentary elections due in less than a year from now, the Central Government has woken up and formed a Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI). In a recent interview to The Economic Times, Arvind Mayaram, Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, mentioned that 256 major projects involving a cost of Rs 7.5 lakh crore had to be taken up by the CCI for expediting clearances. There is no guarantee that even after the CCI approval, the projects will start construction since many are mired in land acquisition problems and resistance by activists. Till the new Land Acquisition Act comes into being, there is little hope that many of these projects, particularly pertaining to infrastructure, will make any advances. Another area which the UPA government has ignored is labour law reform. In fact, no political party wants to touch this topic since it involves the substantial vote bank of organised labour. That this is holding up the enhancement of employment opportunities, particularly in the industry, seems to be of no concern. Not so long ago, there was much talk of India’s demographic dividend, with about 550 million Indians being under the age of 25 years. The hypothesis was that such a huge population in the working age would generate tremendous economic growth. But, for this to happen, these youngsters have to be employed. Unfortunately, there just are not enough jobs being generated. Of course, there are certain anomalies, such as demand for certain skills outstripping supply. The bulk of new entrants to the labour force have dim prospects of landing jobs. The
dividend may most likely turn out to be a disaster. The likely outcome of this tsunami of unemployment is already manifesting itself in the growing crime and suicide rate among the educated youth, increasing number of attacks on the elderly, more number of incidents of sporadic mob violence and a swelling distrust of government authority among the young. In the future, things might get worse with the likelihood of Leftist insurgency creeping into urban areas. An idle mind, after all, is the devil’s workshop.
‘Jobless growth’ phenomenon

Construction jobs do not require high levels of education. This has caused a huge gap between the output and demand for engineering graduates.
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In the ’90s, employment and labour productivity grew at similar rates, whereas between 2004-05 and 2009-10, total employment grew by only 0.1 per cent whereas labour productivity grew by 34 per cent. The employment intensity — the number of employed persons per Rs 1 lakh of real GDP — declined from 1.71 in 2005 to 1.05 in 2010. This trend will continue as more and more mechanisation, automation and computerisation is brought in into all sectors of the economy to maintain global competitiveness.
Figures talk
Areas of concern
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Investment by corporate sector down from 17.3% of the GDP in 2007-08 to 10.6% in 2011-12
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Sharp fall in corporate investment. About 256 major projects involving a cost of Rs 7.5 lakh crore has to be taken up by the Cabinet Committee on Investment for expediting clearances, even then there is no guarantee the projects will start as many are mired in land acquisition problems and resistance by activists.
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Labour law reforms not initiated
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"Casualisation" of employment generation is not a healthy sign since income levels of this segment are too low to generate spending surplus needed to drive high rate of growth.
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