How Punjab exit polls went way off mark in 2017

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, March 7

Despite a clear majority to the Aam Admi Party (AAP) in different post poll survey reports released on Monday evening, there is a guarded reaction from different party workers and leaders to the predicted results quoting the example of 2017 elections when the poll surveys had gone “absolutely wrong”.

Read also: AAP surge in Punjab, BJP set to regain UP, photo-finish in Uttarakhand, Goa; saffron sweep in Manipur

Certain exit polls in 2017 had given the name of Aam Admi Party (AAP) as the one forming the government in Punjab, however the party failed to cross the number of 20. Others showed the AAP in direct contest with the Congress. However, the clear majority of Congress with 77 seats surprised all. Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh himself expressed “total surprise at the results”.

The CVoter survey gave AAP a clear edge predicting 59-67 seats. The ABP Lokniti CSDS survey gave 36-46 seats to the AAP and 46-56 to Congress. The CVoter gave 5-13 seats to the Shiromani Akali dal and the ABP Lokniti CSDS survey gacve 19-27 to the SAD. India Today Axis gave 4-7 and India ndews MRC gave only 7.

The India-Today Axis poll gave 42-51 seats to the AAP while gave only 10 to the SAD. The AAP was shown as the major party in at least three surveys, including India Today Axis (42-510, India Today CVoter (41-49) and ABP Lokiti CSDS (36-46).

The Congress won the 2017 assembly elections with a clear majority of 77 seats. The AAP won 20, the Shiromani Akali Dal 15, BJP three and independents two. The 2012 assembly elections were won by the SAD-BJP alliance.

Reacting to difference in the poll results as compared to the actual results, a senior Congress leader said, “The biggest issue in accepting the results of poll surveys is the small number of people contacted for the survey. Poll surveys is a very specialised job and I am not sure how many can afford a fully professional team. The voter is also smart these days and will not like to reveal the vote that he cast his secret ballot. There is no guarantee of them telling the truth.”

Daljit Singh, an SSM worker, said “The results of the poll survey differed last time. We were very surprised with the final results. The important thing this time is that all poll surveys have given a clear majority to the AAP so should be true.”

No faith in exit polls: SAD

Reacting to the exit polls, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) said it would wait for people’s mandate on March 10 when the counting is done.

“We have no faith in pre-poll or exit-poll claims. These were woefully wrong in previous elections and this time also the poll pundits will be wrong. The Akalis will storm back to power,” said Daljeet Singh Cheema, SAD spokesperson.

Most of the exit polls have predicted Akali will get between 9 to 26 seats.

Cheema said the exit polls can’t be correct as there is such a vast difference between the polls conducted by different agencies and media houses, “If these pollsters have the pulse of people, then they should claim same results or at least be close with each other.”

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