Why Sangh affiliate’s opposition suits BJP

Vibha Sharma in New Delhi

It is very rare in India’s deeply polarised polity that the Right and the Left land at a common meeting ground. The RCEP has provided that convergence.

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Various farmer organisations have called for protests (and blockades) on November 4, when 16 countries meet in Bangkok on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, “to warn the government against going ahead with inclusion of agriculture in the RCEP free trade agreement”.

Swadeshi Jagran Manch, the economic wing of BJP’s ideological fountainhead RSS, has also been making news with its strong stance against the trade agreement that puts together Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, as well as the 10 ASEAN countries.

The RCEP is likely to hurt Indian agriculture, dairy and industry in a way no other trade agreement has so far, says the BJP’s sister organisation in the Sangh Parivar, urging the Narendra Modi government to not go ahead with signing of the multilateral agreement involving 16 countries.

Experts are expecting some sort of “signing of the RCEP, but of a deal that is not yet fully negotiated”. The same is also being indicated by the SJM. According to its senior functionary Ashwani Mahajan, “Almost every industry is worried. The statement coming from the government (Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal) and the news coming from the negotiation table suggest that India has raised concerns, which is encouraging. We are happy to know that the government is concerned over concerns being raised about the RCEP.”

The indications are, he says, “that our negotiators are looking at concerns of the industry, dairy sector and agriculture. Dairy being included in this type of negotiation is perilous for India. Countries like New Zealand, dumping their produce here, can disturb our entire ecosystem. We have seen it happen earlier.”

Govt on deal, ‘fear psychosis’

Recently, Goyal said that India will not be forced by timelines into agreeing to a pact. He also criticised the “fear psychosis” being created around free trade agreements and warned against being globally isolated. The minister said people should wait and see how things progress before expressing views based on “half-baked” information.

Interestingly, contrary to what one might think, the SJM protests suit the BJP government well. “The bureaucracy had been working overtime to see it (RCEP) through and the Sangh opposition worked as a caution. Things were said that the government or the BJP could not say. The UPA paid no heed to protests and criticism (about the ASEAN free trade agreement) and 10 years later it is clear that other countries benefitted more. This (BJP-led NDA) is a much stronger government, capable of protecting vulnerable sectors while striking the right balance,” BJP leaders say.

Regarding allegations of secrecy surrounding the dealings, they claim India’s interests need to be protected. “We should not open so much that our (India’s) interests are compromised or harmed.”

China, the main concern

A key opposition to the 16-nation mega deal is the mystery surrounding negotiations on the 25 chapters of the RCEP text. Plus, of course, the worries regarding China, which Mahajan too points out: “When India is dealing with China, one has to be extra careful.”

There have not been many official voices from the government on the RCEP, except some like Goyal. It is a complicated issue and has the capacity to create major turbulence at a time when India is passing through a difficult economic phase. The BJP is also beginning to witness anger over joblessness and a slowing economy at the grassroots, signs of which became evident during the recent Assembly elections. The Winter Session of Parliamnet is round the corner and all these issues need to be taken care of.

Regarding concerns over safeguard mechanisms, SJM’s Mahajan says the government “does not want any sector to get affected so it is trying to work on the auto trigger mechanism of our kind, which also has the price issue factored in and is not just based on quantity”.

“Personally, I don’t think there will be any final outcome on November 4. Looking at the concept of the RCEP and concerns being raised by the Indian side, I don’t think that will be possible. There are also several issues regarding other countries, especially China. The RCEP was initiated during the UPA regime and it is nothing but a loss-loss situation for our economy. It is factually an FTA (foreign trade agreement) with China. We already have an FTA with ASEAN. And we do not want any FTA with China with which we are facing so many problems. We expect nothing contrary to India’s interest to happen and nothing should happen (in Bangkok),” he says.

On whether pressure from the Sangh affiliate prompted the government to exercise extra caution, Mahajan says his “organisation does not want to take any credit. Our work is to raise the issues. All trade negotiations should be based on national interest. China se bach ke rehna chahiye”.

Experts, however, say that negotiations that are so secret are hardly ever beneficial for people, the FTA India signed with ASEAN in 2009 is an example. On whether the government could have been more open, Mahajan says the organisation is “happy” on that aspect. “The government was open enough on information, secrecy happened during the UPA regime. Besides, on international trade issues, some amount of secrecy is required.”