CMC-Ludhiana study: Dip in Covid cases to continue in July

Nitin Jain

Tribune News Service

Ludhiana, July 13

The present declining trend of Covid cases will continue to persist till later this month, a study by Christian Medical College (CMC) in Ludhiana has predicted.

Experts have suggested that Ludhiana, among six districts, including Amritsar, Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur, Ferozepur and Ropar, still need to be kept under strict vigilance.

The future projections of virus spread made by the epidemiology and biostatistics unit of the Department of Community Medicine at the CMC, a copy of which is available with The Tribune, revealed that the safe trend in all the 22 districts of Punjab will continue at least till July 22.

“The trend is that cases will continue to decrease and the districts which require more vigilance are Ludhiana, Amritsar, Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur, Ferozepur and Ropar,” the experts have opined, while analysing the virus data available till July 7.

However, the state government has prepared a surveillance strategy while anticipating the third possible wave.

The multi-pronged strategy was drafted keeping in view the potential drivers of the possible third wave.

The potential drivers include change in public behaviour after the end of the second wave; seasonal changes as more transmission is suggested in winter season due to increased contacts indoors, decreased ventilation and increased susceptibility to respiratory infections; re-infection due to the waning of immunity; and viral mutations, which lead to new and more transmissible and more fatal variants of Covid as one case each of Delta Plus variant has been reported from Ludhiana and Patiala recently.

As per the strategy, warning signals of the third wave will be sounded by dividing districts into three different risk levels and accordingly Covid restrictions will be imposed to break the virus transmission. The three risk levels identified will revolve around control, alert and response strategy.

Devising a special testing strategy, the government proposed to revise the present minimum testing as per the evolving situation.

The revised restrictions devised to thwart the possible next wave comprised strict measures, including curfew, if positivity rate goes past 10 per cent and hospital bed occupancy increases more than 30 per cent; weekend and evening lockdown besides office attendance restrictions if hit rate touches between 5 and 10 per cent and bed occupancy remains between 21 and 30 per cent; closure of schools, colleges and restrictions on gatherings and closure of spaces meant for indoor public activities when the positivity rate goes between 2 and 5 per cent and bed occupancy remains between 15 and 20 per cent; strict enforcement of wearing masks and local containment zones for the situation where hit rate remains between 1 and 2 per cent and bed occupancy less than 15 per cent; and IEC for social distancing will continue aggressively even if the positivity rate remains less than 1 per cent.

The strategy entails to compute the rise in virus surge for smaller areas beginning from ward and village levels and going up to block, town and city levels.

While restrictions will be put in place in localised areas wherever the Covid cases will rise, the local lockdown will go beyond micro-containment and containment to area-wise restrictions on mobility and gathering in the affected areas, the government strategy entailed.

Join Whatsapp Channel of The Tribune for latest updates.