Chance for Congress to turn the tide

Julio Ribeiro

THE results of the Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Telangana will be announced on December 3. In these polls, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has been more circumspect about its image. It even pulled up BJP leaders this time, something that was sadly missing in most of the preceding elections.

The voters of Bharat are not the same old docile, gullible lot that politicians could take for a ride. Fake news and clever propaganda are being discarded.

Going by the buzz in the media and the drawing rooms of the chatterati, it appears that the Congress has found its feet again. It will emerge as the biggest challenger to PM Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. If all Opposition parties that decided to form the INDIA bloc stick together to oppose Modi’s juggernaut, the Congress will have to be acknowledged as the leader of the pack. If parties like the AAP and Trinamool Congress hesitate to endorse the inevitable, the Congress may decide to go it alone or with the active help of smaller parties like Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction, both hailing from the politically crucial state of Maharashtra.

That there is no wave for any party is apparent. The contests in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are very close. The Chhattisgarh battle may have been easier for the Congress had the Enforcement Directorate not made allegations about Rs 508 crore being passed on to CM Bhupesh Baghel by the promoters of a gaming syndicate. The vehicle driver, on the basis of whose statement the allegations were levelled, has backed out, alleging that he said it all at the behest of the investigators. The truth can be ferreted out only by neutral, unbiased investigators, a tribe that has been almost totally obliterated through political machinations.

In 2014, Modi had given the country hope of a resurgent Bharat where every citizen would be happy and contented. That hope has vanished. The poor still continue to struggle. The well-off are certainly better off, but even in their ranks, I discern misgivings about where the country is heading, with fake news and untruths crowding out reality. At one time, there was pride in belonging to the Hindu fold, but the same enthusiasm is not so discernible now. Bread-and-butter issues dominate in these difficult times.

The fact that the voters are not as enthusiastic about him and his party is not lost on Modi. A more sober member of the BJP, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, while answering questions asked by the media, said a setback in these state polls would not reflect on the voters’ choice in the Lok Sabha elections. This reply alone spoke a lot about a dip in the confidence that BJP leaders usually exude about their efforts to install ‘double-engine’ governments in all states of the country.

The voters of Bharat are not the same old docile, gullible lot that politicians could take for a ride. With education has come knowledge. With knowledge the ability to think for oneself. Fake news and clever propaganda are being discarded. The voters keep their preferences close to their chests. The purveyors of untruths are being identified.

In 2014, the BJP rode a wave of disgust against runaway corruption. Besides the 20 per cent committed votes which the Hindutva proponents would muster in every election, the party picked up around 11 per cent of the votes from the poorer sections of the electorate on the basis of the hope that Modi had kindled in their minds. This facilitated his rise to power in the “first past the post” system of electing people’s representatives.

The direct transfer of government assistance into the bank accounts of the needy, thereby eliminating the rapacious low-level government officials who routinely deprived recipients of half of their entitlement, has been a resounding success. MGNREGA and some other schemes are serviced by direct payments into bank accounts. These measures attracted many more votes for Modi from among the rural poor, who traditionally voted for the Left-leaning parties.

Much of this goodwill was lost when the rural poor were forgotten by Modi amid the Covid-19 outbreak. The Prime Minister dramatically announced a lockdown without any thought for the plight of the migrant labour force which was deprived of means of subsistence overnight and left without transport to go back home. The government stepped in much later when it realised that a massive injustice had been done to the poor migrants. Those who were forced to fend for themselves are hardly likely to forget the trauma they underwent.

Television has reached every village in the land. Even the illiterate know what good work is, and also its opposite, and who is responsible for both. No country was immune to Covid’s ravages. But few countries had the horrible experience of watching their citizens dying because of lack of oxygen cylinders and hospital beds. Probably no other country experienced the horrible sight of bodies floating in rivers. The subsequent cover-ups by the well-oiled propaganda machinery could achieve only marginal success. The images cannot be easily erased.

That the government speaks with a forked tongue about the safety and dignity of women is another matter that Modi needs to address quickly, lest it should militate against his chances of re-election. Women voted for him significantly in the two previous Lok Sabha polls. Many women were discomfited when Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, a BJP MP from UP and then president of the Wrestling Federation of India, was shielded by the Centre despite the accusations of sexual harassment made by women wrestlers.

Now, in the double-engine state of Haryana, ‘godman’ Gurmeet Ram Rahim has been released on parole for three weeks. The rape-murder convict should have been taught a lifelong lesson in jail, but the history of his release on parole and furlough shows that he has been out for a substantial duration of his term of incarceration. This very fact shows that the BJP has no compunction about allowing even routine offenders to roam around as long as they get votes for the party.

If the BJP wants women to vote for Modi in 2024, it needs to reverse the kid-gloves treatment it has accorded to Ram Rahim and Brij Bhushan, who are notorious for preying on womankind.

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