Time running out, why it may be now or never for INDIA alliance

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, December 19

An INDIA alliance meeting after a gap of around three months may see movement on issues related to seat-sharing but does the bloc designed to take on the BJP juggernaut in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have sufficient time to do that?  

Members of the bloc include national opposition parties and key regional satraps and to reach a logical conclusion over who will contest where is a gigantic as well as a tricky task. Observers believe that unless seat-sharing contours are finalised now so that parties can start the process of selecting candidates and begin campaign programmes, INDIA alliance may very well say goodbye to any chance of defeating Prime Minister Narendra Modi keeping in mind the BJP's inherent strengths as a poll machine.

The position of the Congress, which the BJP comfortably defeated in the three Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, is also more precarious than it was perceived a couple of months back. Regional satraps TMC and Samajwadi Party have already gone on record expressing disdain over the way the Congress treated allies in the recent Assembly elections.

Broadly speaking, evolving a core positive agenda, seat-sharing and a programme to hold joint campaigns/rallies need to be resolved as soon as possible. As West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee said, the prime ministerial candidate “will be decided after the elections”.

Interestingly, she also dismissed suggestions that the alliance has lost too much time in putting affairs in order, saying “it is better late than never”.

2024 is not a done deal, she said.

The fourth meeting of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) came after a large gap.  

The first meeting was held in Patna on June 23, the second in Bengaluru on July 17-18 and the third meeting in Mumbai on August 31 and September 1,

It is never too late

The key challenge before leaders of opposition parties with diverse opinions and ideologies is also to come up with an alternative common programme to counter the ruling BJP riding high on the new-enforced strength in the Hindi heartland. 

Observers say the immediate challenge is also to build consensus on a convener, spokespersons and a common secretariat. 

According to RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, committees formed earlier have been working behind the scenes and preparations were being made for the polls. 

The observers say parties like the Samajwadi Party and the DMK may be working on seat-sharing with the Congress in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu but states like West Bengal, Kerala, Punjab and Delhi could remain sticking points.

The bottom line is everyone in opposition ranks will need to stay strong. They must be willing to work together and also make some sacrifices, they add. 

Another key factor is that majority of members of the INDIA bloc are regional satraps. 

Allies had been critical of the Congress for going solo without engaging allies in the campaigning or conceding to their demand for a few seats.

The bottom line is if any lessons need to be learnt from the BJP’s recent victory in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the time is now.

Issue like caste census may not work

Recent Assembly results proved that the build-up on caste census did not appeal much in the Hindi heartland and the INDIA bloc also needs a new strategy, again ASAP. 

Congress position has suffered in the Hindi heartland and new equations will also have to be balanced. 

The results that ignited the North versus South debate also prove that all may not be lost yet.

The BJP has governments in 12 states, but none in the South.

However, the recent results also showcased the BJP’s inherent strengths—dedicated cadres, the ability to reach the last mile, the growing woman support and the ever increasing Hindutva plank breaking through the traditional OBC and tribal base.

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