SAARC summit boycott

India’s decision to pull out of the SAARC summit will prick Pakistan the most. Unable to guarantee foolproof security, Pakistan has for years been unable to host a single international event of note. SAARC was going to be a coming-out party for Pakistan’s rulers and the arrival of seven Heads of Government to Islamabad in November would have put the seal of approval on Pakistan's selective fight against terrorism. That was not to be. Bangladesh and Afghanistan have a similar grouse against Pakistan and found it convenient to join ranks with India. Tiny Bhutan has once again played the loyal associate.  

It was Pakistan’s ill luck that the trouble in Kashmir Valley and the Uri attack happened at a time when the hosts of an international summit should be on their best behaviour. That is what China did just before the G-20 summit. But Pakistan found it too tempting to not take advantage of the trouble in Kashmir. It was probably hoping that despite their misgivings, SAARC members would make it to the summit in order to avoid rupturing a long-held tradition. The Prime Minister will also review MFN status to Pakistan, not that there is much to go over because the other side has not even reciprocated.

Beyond reflecting India’s pique, it is debatable whether such measures will make Pakistan bend. Far from being isolated, Pakistan conducted military drills with Russia and held high-level defence talks with the US. Iran is keen on a stake in the Pakistan-China corridor and West Asian countries are unhappy with India's handling of Kashmir unrest.  More importantly, the US is unwilling to take sides and has called for “establishing more normal channels of communication”.  But the US is not entirely unsympathetic to India’s concerns. It has asked Pakistan to crack down on “safe havens” on its borders.  India’s no-show does not spell the end of the SAARC movement but it does rob Pakistan of its day in the sun.  Its civil society might be forced to contemplate whether the cosseting of militants is a viable strategy in a world weary of armed movements.