India-China stalemate

The 16th round of high-level military talks between India and China, held after a gap of four months, ended without any breakthrough on New Delhi’s two key demands: early disengagement of troops from all remaining friction points in eastern Ladakh; and the restoration of the status quo ante as of April 2020, before the standoff began. There had been an air of expectancy about this round as it was held just 10 days after an interaction between External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Bali. Late last month, PM Modi was among the leaders who had participated virtually in the BRICS summit hosted by China, even as Wang, during his first meeting with India’s new Ambassador to China Pradeep Rawat, had stated that the two countries’ common interests outweighed their differences. However, Wang’s words of conciliation seem to have barely impacted Sunday’s talks between military officers. An uneasy calm continues to prevail in areas along the LAC, which had witnessed a bloody faceoff between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan valley in June 2020.

China has been keen on delinking the border dispute from efforts to improve bilateral ties, while India’s assertion is that the two are inextricably connected. New Delhi has managed to hold its ground on the diplomatic front amid the country’s overdependence on Chinese goods, summed up by its trade deficit which reached a record $77 billion at the end of the 2021-22 financial year. India might not be among Beijing’s largest trade partners, but its huge market holds immense importance for China’s multinational players. At the same time, China wants to have the upper hand on the ground by continuing with its military posturing in Ladakh.

China’s ambivalent stand is similar to the approach adopted by Pakistan, which keeps talking about the restoration of trade ties and people-to-people contact with India but is reluctant to turn off the terror tap or give up its preoccupation with Kashmir. India needs to be wary of both neighbours and insist on verifiable action that matches the overtures made by their leaders.

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