2023 five-state elections—a possible last hurrah in electoral politics for several top leaders?

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma     

Chandigarh, November 1

Apart from markers like the “semifinal to the general election next year”, the “first trial of NDA and INDIA alliances”, an “evaluation of welfare/freebie schemes” and a “test of popularity of BJP, Congress in Hindi heartland”, the 2023 election to the five states seems to have another distinction.

These elections may also be the last hurrah in electoral politics for many top leaders in five states (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram) that go to polls later this month for various reasons. 

Observers say that 2023 will in fact “test their ability to extend their political authority beyond their electoral careers and also how far their children are able to carry forward their political legacy”.

The BJP and the Congress are in direct contest in three states—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Two states—Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh—are ruled by Congress and one (Madhya Pradesh) by BJP. NDA ally Mizo National Front is in power in Mizoram and K Chandrasekhar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana.

Madhya Pradesh

BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan is the CM of the state which had given an edge to Congress in a neck-and-neck in 2018, helping Kamal Nath to form the government. 

What happened thereafter is another matter but observers believe that the November 2023 elections may be the last chance to prove themselves in active electoral politics by two senior Congress leaders Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh.

Born in November 1946, Kamal Nath is around 77. Digvijaya Singh (born February 28, 1947) is 76.

“In case the Congress does not win, by the time of next elections (2028), both will be above 80 and perhaps more in the phase of securing the political future of their sons, kin, etc. Though in Congress there is no age limit for any post or position (81-year old Congress president Malikaarjun Kharge is a good example), five years is a long time and leading the party to a win is the key,” observers say.

In comparison, BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan (born March 5, 1959) is 64 but the four-time chief minister has been facing problems of different variety, a reason why the central leadership fielded seven MPs, including three union ministers, in the state. 

“If the BJP does not do well in these elections, it is unlikely that Chouhan will be in any position to assert himself in the next elections. Even in these elections, the BJP has not revealed its CM face, rather, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sought direct support from the people of Madhya Pradesh,” say observers.

Madhya Pradesh is a state considered closest to the BJP’s heart given its deep-rooted association with its ideological fountainhead, the RSS.       

Rajasthan

In 2018, Congress formed a government headed by Ashok Gehlot following a tough fight with the ruling BJP led by the then CM Vasundhara Raje.

Given the circumstances, Raje should have been the natural choice as the CM face in these elections. However, this is not how the situation developed for her in these elections.   

"The fact is Raje has never been on the best of terms with the BJP’s central leadership but she has been accommodated as the party did not want to make the mistake it had in the case of Karnataka by sidelining BS Yeddiyurappa," explain observers. 

Raje is among the few regional strong leaders of stature that the BJP currently has. Unlike former Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh and Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, she has managed to hold her own against adversaries in the Centre. But if the BJP doesn’t do well in these elections, her power to assert will further erode.  

Raje is 70 and according to the BJP’s “unwritten cut-off age rule of 75 which it uses as per convenience” by the time Rajasthan goes to polls next time she would have crossed the age limit.

So far as Gehlot (72) is concerned, if the Congress does not do well, it may be the last hurrah for him as well. His bête noire Sachin Pilot has been waiting in the wings for far too long, say observers. 

Chhattisgarh

The BJP may have put former CM Raman Singh (71) in the front but 2023 may also be his last attempt to strike big.  

So far as Congress is concerned, Chief Minister Bhupesh Bhagel wrested Chhattisgarh from the BJP with a convincing margin in 2018, winning 68 seats. Also, he is 62, fairly young so far as electoral politics in India goes. But his “adversary” TS Singh Deo, who was a frontrunner for the top job in 2018, is 71, making 2023 a possible last hurrah for him as well. 

Telangana

Telangana is an interesting state to watch out for for many reasons, including being an indication for trends in south India. 

The Bharat Rashtra Samithi (formerly Telangana Rashtra Samithi) is in power in the state which the BJP had been eyeing after a good run in the 2019 general election. However, the Congress appears to be catching up, emerging as a main contender for BRS, according to reports. 

Observers believe that Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao (69), who is also eyeing a national role for himself and his party in 2024, may pass on the baton to his son KTR (already a minister in the state government) in either of the cases—win or loss.   

Mizoram

At 79, Zoramthanga is currently the oldest chief minister in India. 

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