After capturing north, BJP looks south; focuses on 84 seats there in upcoming general election

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, January 4

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's two-day tour to Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and Kerala right in the beginning of 2024 marked the unfolding of BJP’s Mission South ahead of the general election this year.

The visit to opposition-ruled states saw the inauguration of multiple projects along with some strong south-centric messaging by the Prime Minister who cited various examples, including the installation of the Sengol in the new Parliament and the ongoing Kashi Tamil Sangamam in Varanasi, to make his point.  

Southern dreams  

While in the north, especially in the Hindi heartland states, the ruling BJP appears to be more or less in a comfortable position, the same cannot be said about states in the south, a situation that has prompted BJP strategists to devise some region-specific plans and strategies, according to reports.

Meanwhile, contrasting results from Hindi heartland states (Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh) and Telangana and Karnataka in the 2023 Assembly election further enhanced “political differences” between the north and the south which opposition parties have been playing up.

There are around 130 Lok Sabha seats in the south (20 in Kerala, 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 39 in Tamil Nadu, 17 in Telangana, 28 in Karnataka, and one in Puducherry)—a good number for any political party.  

However, apart from the ones in Karnataka, there are around 84 odd constituencies in states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana that the BJP has never won.

Also, the only saffron stronghold in the the south— Karnataka—is currently being ruled by the Congress.

Focus on 84 seats 

According to party leaders, these 84 odd seats in the south are among their target areas for the upcoming general election. The focus on these seats will help increase footprint in the south and also surpass the 303 tally of the 2019 Lok Sabha election, they add. 

In fact, around 160 Lok Sabha seats have been categorised “weak” on which the BJP aims to deploy the strategy it did on seats on similar weak constituencies in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan Assembly elections, they add.  

“People in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have a liking for PM Modi, which now needs to be translated into votes. Even if the BJP does not win on these seats this time, it will help expand its footprint for future.

“The increase in the BJP vote share in Telangana despite the Congress winning the elections proves PM Modi’s appeal. Our overall aim is to win around 350 Lok Sabha seats and increase our vote share to 55%,” they add.

Basically, the aim is to get at least 50 seats from the south where it got 25 from Karnataka and four from Telangana.     

North-south divide

The BJP’s biggest challenge appears to be the north-south divide narrative resulting from the 2023 Assembly results from the heartland and enhanced by language issues in states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

Sources say PM Modi is upset with the opposition’s attempt to “increase the divide mainly for political reasons”.  

Opposition parties are hoping for major gains from the south, especially after the saffron success in the Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh Assembly election.

BJP, southern allies 

The BJP's biggest problem in the south may be lack of good allies.  

In Karnataka, it has JD-S which is seeking at least six of the 28 seats there.

In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK’s decision to quit the NDA was read as a “major setback for BJP’s southern plans”. 

However, experts say that with charismatic leader J Jayalalithaa not there on the political scene anymore, the AIADMK’s chances may not be so bright after all.    

“When Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, the AIADMK stayed away but for the 2019 general election, the alliance was revived. The alliance persisted through the 2021 Assembly election which the DMK won.

“Similarities with the DMK's anti-Sanatan Dharma ideology make the AIADMK not a very suitable partner for the BJP given that Hindutva continues to be at the core of the saffron politics,” say observers.

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