At current temp rise, annual heat deaths will go up 370% by mid-century: Lancet

Tribune News Service

Aditi Tandon

New Delhi, November 15

Climate change is increasingly impacting the survival of people worldwide with annual heat-related deaths projected to increase by 370 per cent by mid-century if global mean temperature continues to rise to just under 2°C as at present.

The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change released on Wednesday says that under the current global warming scenario, heat-related labour loss is projected to increase by 50 per cent and heat waves alone could lead to 524.9 million additional people experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity by 2041-60.

Farm workers most affected

• Heat exposure-related loss in labour capacity resulted in average potential income losses equivalent to $863 billion in 2022. Agricultural workers were most affected
• Compared with 1981-2010, the higher frequency of heatwave days and drought months was associated with 127 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity in 2021

This would aggravate global risk of malnutrition, says the report launched weeks before COP28, which has a health focus for the first time.

In 2023, the world saw the highest global temperatures in over 1,00,000 years and heat records were broken in all continents through 2022, states the Lancet Commission on Climate Change.

“Adults older than 65 years and infants younger than one year are now exposed to twice as many heatwave days as they would have experienced in 1986-2005. New analysis shows that over 60 per cent of the days that reached health-threatening high temperatures in 2020 were made more than twice as likely to occur due to anthropogenic climate change; and heat-related deaths of people older than 65 years increased by 85 per cent compared to 1990-2000, substantially higher than the 38 per cent increase that would have been expected had temperatures not changed,” authors explain.

Climate change is also damaging natural systems on which people rely for good health.

The global land area affected by extreme drought increased from 18 per cent in 1951-60 to 47 per cent in 2013-22, jeopardising water security and food production.

A higher frequency of heatwaves and droughts in 2021 was associated with 127 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity compared with 1981-2010, putting millions of people at risk of malnutrition and potentially irreversible health effects, the findings suggest.

Taking note of the Lancet Commission’s report, the WHO today said a changing climate was accelerating the spread of life-threatening infectious diseases.

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